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華電福新(00816.HK):短期經營或將承壓,維持“收集”評級,目標價1.60港元
格隆匯 04-17 14:37

機構:國泰君安

評級:收集

目標價:1.60港元

華電福新2020年3月的總髮電量同比下滑5.7%;2020年1季度累計發電量同比跌6.4%。短期內由於基建、製造業及房地產等相關高耗能活動預計仍將受到新冠疫情的影響而出現部分擱置,我們預計公司的水電及火電的累計發電量增速可能於2020年2季度維持同比下滑的趨勢。我們現預計公司2020全年的總髮電量同比增速為2.7%左右。

公司2019年權益持有人應占淨利潤同比上升6.5%至人民幣24.16億元,低於預期。每股盈利低於我們此前預測24.7%。總經營開支明顯超出我們預期,其中員工成本、運維成本均錄得與裝機增速不匹配的雙位數同比上升。對於在建風電項目的減值計提現象仍在持續,2020年可能仍會錄得項目減值。在收入端不出現明顯變化的前提下,我們認為成本端的壓力或將使公司2020上半年的盈利面臨挑戰。

下調目標價至1.60港元但維持對華電福新的“收集”評級。由於更低的收入預測,我們將公司2020/2021/2022年每股盈利預測分別下調至人民幣0.242元/0.318元/0.435元。儘管短期經營或將承壓,公司長期基本面仍保持穩定,且現時估值十分吸引。我們將公司目標價自1.85港元下調至1.60港元,相當於6.0倍/4.6倍/3.4倍的2020/2021/2022年市盈率。



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