江西銅業股份(00358.HK):銅價承壓,給予“減持“評級,目標價7.05港元
機構:國泰君安
皮:減持
目標價:7.05港元
江西銅業2019年年度業績差於市場一致預期和我們的估計。公司收入同比增長11.64%至人民幣2,403.6億元,股東淨利同比增長0.77%至人民幣24.7億元。
銅價預計將受到新冠病毒疫情在全球爆發的沉重打擊。我們預計金價將受益於寬鬆的貨幣政策和投資者對避險資產的需求。我們預計全球金屬消費需求將萎縮,年度銅均價在5,000-5,500美元/噸。我們預計2020年黃金年度均價在1,550-1,650美元/盎司。
在2020年,公司計劃生產165萬噸冶煉銅,21萬噸礦產銅,77噸黃金,1,025噸白銀和163萬噸銅材。
下調公司目標價至7.05港元,下調至“減持”評級。

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