中國國航(00753.HK):國際航線蒙上陰影,維持“中性“評級,目標價5.06港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:中性
目標價:5.06港元
中國國航2019年淨利潤同比下降12.7%至人民幣64.20億元,低於市場預期,但好於我們的預期8%。收入大致持平於人民幣1,402.4億元,其中航空客運收入提供了支持,其同比增長3.4%至人民幣1,245.45億元,但由於今年沒有航空貨運部門-國貨航,因此受到航空貨運收入拖累。運營成本有所改善,主要是因為2019年油價走低使航空燃油成本節省以及民航發展基金貢獻在2019年下半年減少了50%。
國內航線緩慢恢復,但國際航線慘淡。自2020年2月中以來,國內運力按周增加,但我們預計運力的恢復將會緩慢,因民航局實施流量控制以及需求將需要時間修復。相反,由於感染病例的情況惡化,國際航線預計將在3月觸底並保持低位,尤其是在美國和歐洲。
由於我們預計復甦將慢於預期,而且國際航線可能會持續疲軟直至2020年第三季度,因此我們進一步削減了今年的盈利預測。儘管2020年更為保守,但我們預計2021年的航空運輸量將在很大程度上恢復至2019年的水平,並在2022年保持穩定增長。我們也降低了油價假設,但只有在2021年航班恢復正常後,公司才更能受益更多。
在種種不確定因素的影響下,我們維持投資評級為“中性”,而由於估值偏弱和盈利預測下調,目標價下調至5.06港元。我們的目標價代表0.70倍2020年市淨率和0.65倍2021年市淨率。

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