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中芯國際(00981.HK):調高Q1業績指引,代工費上行邏輯得驗證,維持“增持”評級
格隆匯 04-09 16:49

機構:國泰君安

評級:增持

投資建議。我們繼續強調隨着國產替代趨勢延續,CIS、利基存儲等細分行業景氣度提升,公司平均代工費有望在2020年出現抬升趨勢,加諸公司先進製程積極推進等因素,維持“增持”評級。

由於產品需求增長及產品組合優化超預期,公司上調一季度收入及毛利率指引。收入增長由0%~2%調高至6%~8%,毛利率指引由21%~23%上調為25%~27%。

一季度收入及毛利率指引較大幅度提升,二季度我們判斷更樂觀。公司修正後的一季度毛利率指引中值環比提高2.2個百分點,同比提高7.75個百分點。修正後收入環比增長6%~8%對應絕對區間為8.89~9.06億美元,YoY27.18%~29.61%。我們認為一季度收入和毛利率環比、同比較高提升表徵公司非但未受冠狀病毒影響產能處於滿載狀態,同時平均代工費由於客户結構及產品結構優化帶來環比的提升,正式打開2020年代工費上漲通道。值得一提是,考慮到疫情影響的減弱、國產替代的加速、產品結構進一步改善,我們對二季度的基本面判斷更為樂觀。

2020年除了基本面的改善,預計先進製程佈局將取得進一步實質性進展。從長期來看我們認為晶圓代工核心投資邏輯在於“一超多弱”的競爭格局和市場需要先進製程第二供應商的矛盾,而公司FinFET製程4Q19開始貢獻有意義的收入,同時FinFET第二代(N+1)在2019年中即進入客户導入階段,使我們對公司長期成長力度及競爭力展望樂觀。另外雖然冠狀病毒在全球持續性及對2H20公司需求端影響難以準確把握,但相信先進製程的進展將會抵消冠狀病毒對運營負面影響(即使有的話),同時將拉昇公司長期估值水平。

風險提示:中美貿易摩擦帶來的不確定性;行業景氣度回升不及預期。

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