中國鐵塔(00788.HK)：5G拉動站址需求進入新一輪高速成長期，給予公司“推薦”評級，目標價2.14港元
機構：方正證券
評價：推薦
目標價：2.14港元
5G引領新基建浪潮，鐵塔維持高資本開支，奠定長期增長基礎：2019年中國鐵塔資本開支271億，預計2020年資本開支為280億，其中5G資本開支178億；截至2019年，公司共擁有塔類站址數199.4萬個，淨增6.9萬個。2020年正式進入5G規模建設期，在全球經濟受疫情影響的不利情況下，我們看好5G引領國內新基建浪潮，在資本開支維持高位&站址需求升温的背景下，我們看好公司業績的長期持續增長。
全球最大鐵塔供應商，新老業務有望共同提升共享率：公司是全球規模最大的通訊鐵塔基礎設施供應商，鐵塔資源、租户數不斷攀新高，但目前共享率為1.62，相比美國印度等同類企業還有較大提升空間。考慮到：1）新建鐵塔共享率更高，2019年新增運營商組合共享滿足比例超過80%，帶動整體共享率提升，預計2022年，中國鐵塔共享率將提高到1.8-1.9；2）跨行業拓展，公司立足資源優勢和專業能力，佈局智聯和能源領域，有望進一步提升共享率；3）廣電入局引入新增客户，2019年底前公司已在個別省市接到廣電5G站址需求超過1500個，若廣電5G組網推進順利，未來有望有效提升公司站址共享率。
國內鐵塔市場呈壟斷格局且難以破局，公司長期增長確定性較高。根據公司招股書，2017年公司在國內佔據97.3%的站址、96%的租户、96%的收入市場份額,第二名國動網絡市場份額低於1%。公司在國內站址領域幾乎無潛在競爭對手，考慮到站址資源的稀缺性以及資金投入等因素，我們預計未來鐵塔市場競爭格局仍將維持，公司長期增長的確定性較高。
投資評級與估值：我們預計公司2020-2022年營收分別為843/892/949億元，根據絕對估值法測算，公司股價合理區間為1.94-2.30港元，參考可比公司估值，根據相對估值法測算，公司合理價值為2.14港元，首次覆蓋，給予公司“推薦”評級。
風險提示：站址數增長不及預期，5G基站建設量不及預期，共享率提升不及預期，租金單價下滑，疫情影響以及全球貿易摩擦等風險。
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