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中國有贊(08083.HK):去中心化電商是大勢所趨,新零售在疫情中加速成長,維持“強烈推薦”評級,目標價為1.1港元
格隆匯 04-08 11:05

機構:東興證券

評級:強烈推薦

目標價:1.1港元

一、去中心化電商是大勢所趨。公司業績受益於去中心化電商的蓬勃發展。2019年下半年起,公司服務商家的GMV顯示出加速增長的趨勢。2019H1,GMV增速為50%;2019Q3,GMV增速接近90%;2019Q4,GMV增速已經達到165%。有贊是去中心化電商背後的“賣水者”。目前,有贊已經接入了微信、快手、一直播、映客等越來越多的流量平台。未來,有望接入更多的流量平台,充分受益於整個去中心化電商的發展。

二、新零售業務在疫情中加速成長。疫情的爆發凸顯了新零售的價值,幫助有贊教育了線下商户。紅蜻蜓、GXG、文峯等線下商家利用有贊快速搭建線上銷售渠道。未來,公司新零售業務將有望加速成長。

三、我們看好公司長期發展。1、未來商業變現能力的加強將推動公司收入繼續高速增長。有贊SaaS收入的高速增長,正是其公司競爭力的綜合體現。未來,商業變現能力的加強將推動公司收入繼續高速增長。2、加速構建產業生態的發展。未來,我們預計公司將進一步加強產業生態的構建。通過有贊雲、第三方開發者、第三方服務商和代理商,共同構建一個生態系統,更好地服務好廣大商家。

公司盈利預測及投資評級:我們預計公司2020-2022年收入分別為21.96、39.24和67.61億元,同比增速為87.6%、78.6%和72.3%。我們即使按照2020年15倍市銷率,給予公司12個月目標價,摺合目標價為1.1港元。維持“強烈推薦”評級。

風險提示:直播電商發展不及預期的風險;線下零售發展不及預期的風險;

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