《大行報告》中金料貓眼娛樂(01896.HK)短期業績受疫情拖累 關注中長期戰略
中金發表報告表示,近期組織了貓眼娛樂(01896.HK)的非交易路演,維持對其「跑贏行業」評級及目標價15.5元。對於新冠疫情的影響,貓眼娛管理層分享了目前的最新情況和看法。行業層面上,公司認為影院恢復營業時點取決於疫情進展,具體時間很難預測;但在內容端,由於國內電影內容供給整體過剩,以及近期部分地區劇組已經陸續重新開機,預計疫情對國產影片供給的影響相對有限。
公司層面,貓眼娛樂管理層表示在線票務、內容服務等業務均受到疫情的顯著影響,但公司的成本結構中固定成本的佔比相對較低,在極限情形下依然有足夠資金儲備來保持正常運營;此外公司已於去年下半年基本完成了原定於2020年上映的影視內容的布局,儲備片單豐富,其中部分會延後到2021年上映。
中金認為當前艱困的市場環境短期或仍將持續,公司2020年經營承壓;但中長期來看,影院獨特的觀影體驗優勢並不會因為疫情而改變,未來疫情的影響消退後,料觀眾的觀影習慣有望逐步恢復。
該行表示,當前內地影院行業仍然處於停業狀態,復業時間尚不確定。基於行業於6月起恢復常態的假設,維持2020年至2021年盈利預測不變,但仍需警惕行業復甦時點進一步延後的風險。公司當前股價對應2021年調整後市盈率8.5倍。
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