中國國航(0753.HK)：關注國際疫情拐點，維持中性評級，目標價5.3港元
機構：招商證券
評級：中性
目標價：5.3港元
■ 2019年淨利同比下降12.7%，低於預期；運力受限、票價走低以及經營 租賃並表是主因
■ 疫情衝擊嚴重，大幅下調盈利預測
■ 下調公司目標價24%至5.3港元，維持中性評級 2019年淨利潤同比下降12.7%
公司收入同比下降0.5%至1,402億元人民幣，營業利潤同比增長2.1%，淨 利潤同比下降12.7%至64億元人民幣，低於預期。運營數據方面， ASK/RPK分別同比增長5.2%/5.7%，客座率同比上升0.4個百分點，客公里 收益同比下降2.2%，座公里成本同比下降5.6%；分地區來看，國際市場表 現好於國內。
公司營收增速低於同業：1）受北京機場跑道維修、 B737MAX停飛、大型會議活動等影響，公司國內運力增速不及預期；2） 公司剝離國貨航業務，致使貨運收入同比下降50%；3）宏觀經濟壓力致使 需求偏弱，票價走低。此外，經營租賃並表導致公司利息支出同比大增 70%亦對淨利潤有負面影響。 疫情衝擊不確定因素大 疫情對公司2020年業績將產生嚴重影響，且預計一季度為最嚴重時期。應 對疫情，公司以邊際貢獻最大化為衡量標準，有邊際貢獻就安排飛行，同 時採取客貨並舉、客改貨等方式彌補客運損失。
此外，公司也在推進延遲 引進飛機的談判。公司國內客運在2月18日復工後開始有所恢復，呈現緩 慢復甦態勢，近期平穩；國際方面，2月中下旬開始回國客流強勁，3月初 高峯。展望後市，目前國內疫情局勢平穩，但國際疫情嚴峻，公司主基地 所在北京市作為首都，其防疫措施嚴格，在國際疫情沒有緩解時，公司的 客運業務可能將受到更長時間影響，預計8月後回暖。
下調盈利預測與目標價 我們大幅下調了公司盈利預測，預計2020年公司錄得虧損10億元人民幣， 基於：1）下調公司供需和票價預測；2）國際油價大幅下跌及各項優惠政 策。基於新的盈利預測，同時下調估值乘數5%至0.8x2020年預測市淨率， 下調公司目標價24%至5.3港元，維持中性評級。
催化劑：國際疫情好轉。
風險：疫情持續時間超出預期。
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