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中國飛鶴(06186.HK)2019年報點評:高增長高分紅的行業龍頭,維持“推薦”評級
格隆匯 03-27 15:05

機構:方正證券

評級:推薦

【事件】飛鶴公佈上市後首份年報:2019年收入137億元(YoY+32%),歸母淨利潤39億元(YoY+78%),每股股息0.19港元,分紅率40%。超高端星飛帆收入同比+38%至70億元。渠道推力、品牌力進一步強化,在南方、一線市場增長尤為強勁。

【點評】2019年毛利率提升至70%,淨利率提升至28%(vs2018年21%)。其中銷售費率降至28%(vs2018年35%),得益於增長帶來的規模效應,以及多年積累的精細化管理能力。應對疫情公司快速反應,在生產、供應等方面應對充分,前兩個月產量同比+40%,送達率達到98%,提供送貨上門服務。公司通過線上直播超預期完成“包城包省”營銷計劃,預計2020Q1收入和利潤增長在30%左右,為全年奠定了良好開端。集團發展目標是在2023年前聚焦奶粉,力爭成為國際一流的嬰幼兒配方奶粉品牌。2019年飛鶴市佔率11%,在國產中市佔率23%,超高端中市佔率30%,中國奶粉行業的集中度仍有大幅提升空間(中國CR5僅38%,美國CR5為59%,歐洲約80%)。

【投資建議】預計2020-2022年歸母淨利潤50億、65億、82億人民幣,同比增速分別為29%、29%、26%。估值對應2020-2022年市盈率分別約為22倍、17倍、13倍,維持不低於30%股息分紅率,2020年2月被納入恆生指數名單,維持“推薦”評級。

【風險提示】(1)生育率下滑帶來增長壓力;(2)疫情導致行業價格戰;(3)食品安全等事件或對行業的潛在影響。

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