建發國際集團(01908.HK)：業績穩增，銷售靚眼，土儲規模加速提升，維持“買入”評級
機構：東吳證券
事件
建發國際集團公告2019年業績：2019年公司實現營業收入179.95億元，同比增長45%；歸母淨利潤17.18億元，同比增長21%；基本每股收益1.99元。
點評
業績穩健增長，銷售持續高增。2019年公司實現營業收入179.95億元，同比增長45%；歸母淨利潤17.18億元，同比增長21%；業績增速略低於營收增速，主要由於公司結算項目中，龍巖、蘇州項目結算毛利率較低，拉低公司銷售毛利率水平至25.9%，同比下降7.4個百分點，預計未來將穩定在此水平；銷售淨利率11.1%，同比下降1.6個百分點。公司作為行業後起之秀，2017年後銷售規模快速提升，2019年公司實現銷售額508億元，同比增長105%；銷售面積293萬平米，同比增長79%，平均銷售均價17317元/平米，公司2020年銷售目標為700億元。
土儲規模提升迅猛。截至2019年末，公司在國內及澳大利亞合計持有83個項目，土地儲備可售面積934.69萬平米，同比增長68%，權益比例為72%，土儲充沛有效保障未來銷售規模。
槓桿有所回落，融資成本維持低位。截至2019年末，公司資產負債率83.0%，同比下降0.08個百分點；淨負債率為176%，同比下降66個百分點。儘管槓桿較高，但公司股東背景助力公司融資渠道暢通，加權平均融資成本僅5.4%，同比繼續下降0.3個百分點。
多元業務增長穩健。1）物業管理收入6.55億元，同比增長25%，佔公司總收入的3.6%；物管業務覆蓋全國32個城市，合同管理面積3500萬方；2）商業資產管理收入1.22億元，佔公司總收入的0.7%，目前總出租面積11.84萬方，其中9.55萬方建築面積已經出租；3）代建收入9179萬元。
投資建議：建發國際集團背靠控股股東建發房產，在資源、融資、人員上將享受母公司的充分支持；考慮到公司近兩年銷售規模和城市佈局快速擴張，我們此前預判的業績進入釋放期邏輯已經得到印證，預計2020-2022年公司EPS分別為1.75、2.19、2.74元人民幣，對應PE分別為4.7、3.7、3.0倍，當前公司估值處於較低位置，我們認為公司目前同時具備高業績、低估值、高股息特性，具備較強的安全邊際，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：行業銷售波動；政策調整導致經營風險（棚改、調控、税收政策等）；融資環境變動（按揭、開發貸、利率調整等）；企業運營風險（人員變動、施工、拿地等）；匯率波動風險。
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