微盟集團(02013.HK)：收入增長超預期，內生預計維持高增長，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
收入快速增長，扭虧為盈，業績好於一致預期。2019年收入14.37億元（+66.1%），經營利潤0.38億元，歸母淨利3.12億(含優先股公允價變動收益2.98億)，經調整EBITA實現1.68億(+131%)，經調整淨利0.77億（+52.1%）。毛利率同比下降4.3個點至55.5%，主要是毛利率較低的營銷收入佔比提升。費用率收窄，銷售費用率和管理費用率降至49.9%、9%。
SaaS收入同比+46%，預計20年內生收入保持高增長，智慧零售、餐飲處於快速增長中，以中大型品牌商户為主，ARPU值高，流失率低。19年SaaS付費商户數、ARPU值分別同比+23%、+18.8%，流失率降至22.2%，毛利率80.5%，主要是寬帶及硬件成本和研發投入攤銷增長。截至2019年底，智慧零售收入4,474萬元，其中品牌商户達到217家，ARPU值達12.5萬元，預計未來幾年保持翻倍增長；智慧餐飲收入3,966萬元，收購雅座打造一體化智慧餐飲解決方案。
精準營銷毛收入翻倍增長，預計20年仍有高增長。19年毛收入52.81億元(+111.9%)，淨佣金率7.7%，付費客户數和ARPU分別同比+19.4%、+77.4%，廣告主復投率升至68.3%。與騰訊廣展開深入合作，獲得騰訊多個重點區域牌照和行業牌照、以及KA全國牌照，加強更多媒體流量合作（抖音/快手/頭條等）。
維持“買入”評級。2020年微信商業生態提速，微盟作為騰訊生態領先的商業SaaS公司將受益；營銷保持高增長；宕機事件公司承擔1億元撥備金，目前業務已恢復正常，中大客户流失率低。預計20~22年收入分別增長46.9%、41.0%、41.3%，經調整淨利0.47億（考慮宕機事件支出）、1.07億、2.26億。根據SoTP合理價值為6.9港元/股。
風險提示。微信商業生態發展不及預期，SaaS收入增長不及預期，虧損擴大；廣告主預算收窄，佣金率下降，費用增長；現金流變差。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
