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惠譽:疫情帶來市場波動考驗港銀資本緩衝
阿思達克 03-20 15:00
評級機構惠譽發表報告,美聯儲再度緊急減息後本周環球市場劇烈波動,進一步考驗本港銀行資本緩衝的韌性。不過,自2008年金融海嘯起,銀行在投資持倉更加審慎,及建立了資本及流動性緩衝,將為短期按市值計價帶來的資本侵蝕帶來一些緩衝。

在該行覆蓋的港銀中,去年投資證券價值平均達銀行股本的250%,2008年則逾300%。對政府債券及公共領域債券佔受覆蓋港銀總投資約三分之一,而2008年則僅約10%。持有債券增加反映在巴塞爾協議III下法定流動性比率要求的落實。

為回應經濟展望疲弱,繼去年10月後,金管局進一步下調逆周期資本緩衝(CCyB)由2%降至1%。惠譽不預期該調整將導致今年放貸增加,源於疫情下營商環境轉差,及港銀傳統上在下行周期風險胃納傾向保守。反之,惠譽料上述調整將致港銀在資本管理上有更大彈性,以應對淨息差壓力、信貸損失擴大、投資估值波動及對其資本的影響。

與美聯儲及金管局減息相反,報告稱,港銀同業拆息本周抽高,投資者追逐美元計價資產。一個月HIBOR按周升約70點子至1.8%,主要受聯匯制度、本地新股活動及季末存款競爭至美元LIBOR上升影響。不過,在全球低息環境持續下,惠譽料銀行利潤率續受壓,將壓抑再投資收益率。由於疫情全球擴散及投資胃納收縮,貸款需求下滑將帶來收入挑戰。

惠譽表示,料今年港銀信貸損失擴大,銀行進一步計入下行情景估算以反映疫情負面經濟影響。短期利率波動及2月底以來股市下挫,或致港銀投資以市值計價未實現損失擴大,對資本緩衝構成壓力。

報告指出,縱使疫情短期挑戰下,港銀風險緩和及緩衝大致可以維持。不過,倘疫情維持更長時間,將損害系統流動性及資本緩衝,或導致本港經營環境需向下重評。對本港作為國際金融中心以及美元集資中心地位的蠶食,亦會影響該行的評核。

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