花旗:料中國推更多寬鬆措施 予招行及郵儲行買入評級
花旗發表研究報告預料,中國將採取更多寬鬆措施提振銀行業,零售銀行具有更好的風險定價能力,而且是近期監管收緊結構性存款和潛在基準利率下調的主要受益者。該行上調招商銀行AH股評級至“買入”,給予郵儲銀行AH股“買入”評級,目標價分別為6.91元人民幣及6.35港元。
花旗表示,2月疲弱的信貸數據將增加進一步政策放寬的可能性,預計今年存款準備金率將下調150個基點,二季度基準活期和定期存款利率將分別下調5個基點及25基點。該行預料,郵儲銀行將是存款基準利率下調的最大受益者,而招行是股份行下調存款準備金率的主要受益者。限制結構性存款利也將緩解銀行負債壓力,尤其有利於擁有強大零售渠道的郵儲行和招行。
該行又指,兩家銀行的不良貸款撥備覆蓋率高,零售貸款風險可控,而且有足夠緩衝能力來維股本回報率(ROE)提升及優於同業的盈利增長。當中,該行首次覆蓋郵儲銀行,預計該行是唯一一家税後淨利潤有兩位數成長和ROE上升的大型銀行。
同時,花旗指出,中資銀行估值已具有誘人回報,同時看好工商銀行(1398.HK)和建設銀行(0939.HK)H股。
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