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《業績前瞻》券商料長實(01113.HK)去年重估及出售投資物業前溢利升兩成 關注前景指引
阿思達克 03-11 16:21
長實集團(01113.HK)將於下周四(19日)公布去年業績,市場料受惠包括君柏、海之戀、海之戀‧愛炫美等本港住宅及內地物業入賬,本網綜合6間券商預期長實集團2019年在重估及出售投資物業前之溢利介乎269.49億元至304億元,較2018年同期241.34億元,按年增11.7%至26%,中位數為289.1億元,按年升19.8%。

由於2019年較上年缺乏一次性出售資產收益(公司於2018財年將在2016年出售上海世紀匯物業溢利入賬,該項目獲利69.89億元),本網綜合5間券商預期,期內其純利介乎253.86億元至314.83億元,按年跌21%至36.7%。中位數為287.77億元,按年跌28.3%。綜合4間券商預期,2019年每股股息介乎2.09元至2.14元,較2018年每股股息1.9元,按年升10%至12.6%,中位數為2.1元,按年升10.5%。市場將關注疫情及社會事件對本港樓市、集團物業投資策略、及投資性物業前景的指引。

【去年溢利升 今年迎挑戰】

匯豐環球研究發表上月發表報告,料長實集團去年重估及出售投資物業前之溢利錄304億元,將按年上升26%,料收入819億元按年升63%,料物業發展收入636.76億元按年升80%、估計投資物業收入錄76.3億元按年增長2%、料酒店及服務式住宅業入44.32億元按年下滑13.7%、料物管業務收入8.67億元按年升5%,旗下航空資產租賃收入24.51億元按年升13.3%,料其去年每股盈利8.52元,料每股派息2.1元。該行預期今年上半年對香港房地產市場而言是困難時期,主要是受到經濟疲弱及旅遊相關業務表現下滑所拖累。

花旗料,長實去年重估及出售投資物業前之溢利錄287.77億元,將按年上升10.2%,相信公司期內利透明度高,因公司截至2019年6月底止持有未入賬物業銷售535億元,料其中400億元可於2019年下半財年入賬,主要是海之戀‧愛炫美及維港頌項目,但關注公司今年物業銷售會轉弱,料其2020年重估及出售投資物業前之溢利或會按年倒跌。

美銀證券表示,估計今年上半年本港住宅樓價跌約10%(之前預測跌5%),而銷量則將顯著向下(對比2003年沙士期間,2月至6月的銷量按年大跌三成)。該行將本地地產行業2020-2022年每股盈利預測削2-6%,估算是基於疫情將在2-3個月內受控而定。

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本網綜合6間券商預期長實集團2019年在重估及出售投資物業前之溢利介乎269.49億元至304億元,較2018年同期241.34億元,按年增11.7%至26%,中位數為289.1億元,按年升19.8%。

券商│2019年重估及出售投資物業前之溢利預測│按年變幅

匯豐環球研究│304億元│+26%

瑞信│298.89億元│+23.8%

瑞銀│294.58億元│+22.1%

美銀證券│289.05億元│+19.8%

花旗│287.77億元│+19.2%

里昂│269.49億元│+11.7%

按長實集團2018年重估及出售投資物業前之溢利241.34億元推算

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綜合5間券商預期,期內其純利介乎253.86億元至314.83億元,較2018年同期401.17億元,按年跌21%至36.7%,中位數為287.77億元,按年跌28.3%。

券商│2019年純利預測│按年變幅

匯豐環球研究│314.83億元│-21.5%

美銀證券│317.1億元│-21%

花旗│287.77億元│-28.3%

里昂│278.54億元│-30.6%

高盛│253.86億元│-36.7%

按長實集團2018年純利401.17億元推算

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本網綜合5間券商預期長實集團2019年每股股息介乎2.04元至2.14元,較2018年每股股息1.9元,按年升7.4%至12.6%,中位數為2.1元,按年升10.5%。

券商│2019年每股股息(港元)│按年變幅

瑞銀│2.14元│+12.6%

匯豐環球研究│2.1元│+10.5%

美銀證券│2.1元│+10.5%

高盛│2.09元│+10%

星展│2.04元│+7.4%

按長實集團2018年每股股息1.9元推算

(ta/w)

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