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周大福(01929.HK):2020年1-2月同店銷售增長受新冠病毒影響,維持“收集”評級,目標價7.65港元
格隆匯 03-11 15:46

機構:國泰君安

評級:收集

目標價:7.65港元

受新冠病毒爆發影響,同店銷售增長在2020年1-2月大幅下滑。中國內地收入同比下降42%,同店銷售下降49%。香港、澳門和其它地區的零售額和同店銷售分別同比下滑60%和59%。產品結構方面,鑲嵌珠寶和黃金產品表現接近。

預計銷售會在2020年第2季度逐漸恢復。從2020年2月底開始在中國內地和香港暫時關閉的門店逐漸開始恢復營業。我們預期當疫情得到抑制、經營環境恢復正常之後,中國內地的需求將會得到較快恢復。然而,香港市場更加依賴遊客因而面臨更嚴峻的挑戰。

重申投資評級為“收集”,但下調目標價至7.65港元。估值分別相當於22.0倍2020財年市盈率以及14.9倍2021財年市盈率。考慮到公司在中國內地穩定的增長趨勢,我們認為該估值合理。下行風險包括1)較預期疲弱的消費情緒恢復;2)金價波動;以及3)派息率降低。

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