《大行報告》高盛下調舜宇(02382.HK)盈測 維持「買入」評級目標價150元
高盛發表的研究報告指,舜宇光學科技(02382.HK)去年及今年1月份出貨量強勁,當中手機鏡頭及鏡頭模組出貨量均好過預期,但受新型冠狀病毒疫情影響,供應鏈料需時恢復產能,估計將拖累公司2至4月的出貨表現,另外該行估計明年在鏡頭領域亦將有更激烈的競爭,或影響到公司的經營開支比例,該行將公司今明兩年每股盈測分別下調20%及23%,目標價維持150元,評級維持「買入」。該行指出雖然大部分企業均在2月10日復產,但受交通限制及隔離措施等影響,僱員到崗比率需要時間復甦,而行業亦需要更長時間才能全面復產,此外細規模的零部件供應商或組裝商因議價能力弱,加上需要尋求地方政府復工批准,故預計將需要更長時間才回復正常生產,該行估計供應面方面的挑戰將持續至4月份。高盛認為智能手機市場飽和加上疫情將鼓勵品牌更進取地推出高性價比智能手機,以搶佔市場份額並支持5G智能手機市場增長。該行去年審視了173款華為、小米(01810.HK)、OPPO及Vivo推出的手機,總共有685個鏡頭,平均每部手機的鏡頭數目由2018年的3組增至去年的4組,當中有47%的鏡頭為200萬、500萬或800萬像素。該行認為這類型鏡頭增長勢頭在2020年將持續,以Vivo最新推出的中端5G手機Z6為例,售價為2,298元人民幣並只有5G版本,手機與舊款比較,主鏡頭由1,600萬像升級至4,800萬像素,並由3鏡頭增至4鏡頭,但額外增加的鏡頭僅有200萬像素。該行指出低端鏡頭增長以及手機市場競爭等,帶動手機鏡頭及鏡頭模組供應商增加,或會如該行早前的估計,舜宇過份進取地推動產品組合升級。該行將今明兩年800萬像素以下鏡頭出貨量佔比預測升至21%及16%,並將800萬像以下鏡頭模組出貨量貢獻由之前的7%及2%大增至各17%,意味今明兩年淨利將分別跌12%及18%。
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