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《大行報告》美銀證券下調中電(00002.HK)目標價至102元 評級「買入」
阿思達克 02-25 10:05
美銀證券發表的研究報告指,中電控股(00002.HK)去年經常性淨利按年跌20.5%,低於該行預測,主要因為澳洲業務經營利潤錄52.6%的下跌,而香港方面投資回報率機制(ROR)雖下調,但盈利仍勝預期,而印度及中國內地方面的表現則符該行預測。公司在去年亦新增了首個電力輸送項目,並指引將在2020年再增兩項目,該行估計隨著印度的資產負債表逐步改善,加上內地的營運可受惠收購梅州的太陽能項目等,料其股本回報率可達到6%至8%,而陽江核電廠盈利有所下跌,相信是受一次性開支及增值稅回撥較少所影響,而公司在台灣及東南亞的營運溢利則按年錄107%的增長,主要受惠燃料成本增長滯後。 該行指出計及澳洲的零售項目預測下調及印度傳輸方面盈利預測提升後,該行將公司2020/21年每股盈利預測分別降5%及4%,目標價由106元降至102元,重申「買入」評級,主因公司自2020年開始可維持每股派息年複合增長3%的水平;另在澳洲業務上財年錄一次性重大減值後,中電2020財年資本回報率料可反彈至10%等。 美銀證券指出中電2019年淨債務對資本比率僅26.7%,認為公司將大幅提升在澳洲及印度的投資以推動盈利能力提升,另外亦相信粵港澳大灣區擴展可帶動未來15年管制協議的每股盈利年複合增長4%至5%。
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