《大行報告》中金:中國平安(02318.HK)去年壽險增長仍慢 料代理人渠道調整持續
中金發表報告指,中國平安(02318.HK)去年新業務價值按年增長5%,符合市場預期;內含價值按年增長20%,略高於市場預期;歸母淨利按年增長39%,低於市場預期;營運利潤按年增長18%,符合預期。
該行指,集團淨利潤增長39%,主要由於投資收益提升和稅收政策變動,增幅略低於市場預期,主要由於補提壽險準備金,認為這有助於平滑今年的利潤波動。集團營運利潤(剔除稅收政策變動影響)按年增長18%,符合市場預期。壽險營運利潤增速顯著放緩(稅前壽險營運利潤按年增長僅3%),主要由於代理人費用投入加大和退保經驗波動導致營運偏差大幅下降113億元。考慮到今年新業務增長依然面臨挑戰,認為壽險營運利潤放緩的趨勢將持續。
另外,集團去年新業務價值按年增長5%(第四季按年增長7%),符合市場預期。代理人數量較三季度末繼續下降6%至117萬(較年初下降18%),在人力大幅下降背景下,人均產能有相應提升。而長期高價值業務(保障型+長交保障儲蓄混合型)新業務價值按年增長5%,較上升負增長有好轉。中金預計集團年代理人數量繼續下降,人均產能提升,新業務價值增速或進一步放緩。
由於今年調整準備金補提預測變化,該行上調集團今明兩年每股盈測分別8.1%及0.3%,至9.2元及9.7元人民幣。此外,中金又維持對中國平安的「跑贏行業」評級,H股目標價114元。
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