廣汽集團(2238.HK)1月銷量點評：銷量強於行業，自主企穩跡象明顯，維持“買入”評級，目標價10.8港元
機構：西部證券
評級：買入
目標價：10.8港元
1月批發銷量表現好於行業，預計庫存進一步下降。公司1月銷售17.2萬台汽 車，同比下滑15.9%，表現好於行業，從目標達成率來看相當於全年銷量目 標的8%，符合我們預期。分品牌看，傳祺1月銷量為3.5萬台，同比增長5.3%， 環比下滑4.3%。廣豐、廣本、廣三銷量同比下滑15.2%、16.1%、31.6%。 1月廣豐、廣本、傳祺主動減產去庫存，廠家庫存分別減少1.4萬台、1.6萬 台、0.7萬台，我們預計終端銷量略好於批發，渠道庫存亦有小幅下降。
自主品牌企穩跡象明顯。主要體現在以下方面：1）GS4去年11月換代以來 穩步爬坡，我們預期1月批發約1.4萬台，終端約1.2萬台；2）經銷商層面庫 存結構和盈利能力有明顯好轉，2019年底庫存係數約1.3個月，主力車型都已 經實現盈利；3）集團層面在廣宣費用投放、價格管控方面更嚴格，我們終端 調研顯示此前跨區域銷售情況有明顯改善。
廣本皓影上市後終端反饋良好，廣豐威蘭達定價吸引，預計成為下一款爆款。 廣本皓影自去年11月上市以來終端反饋良好，目前部分地區需要加價提車， 預計穩態銷量約1.5萬台。廣豐方面，威蘭達計劃於4月上市，官方公佈預售 區間為17-25萬元，對比姐妹款車型全新RAV4，威蘭達同基於TNGA架構 GA-K平台打造，提供2.0L燃油版和2.5L雙擎版，定價更具吸引力，預計將 成為下一款爆款。
疫情影響短期銷量，調整2020年淨利潤為108億元，維持“買入”評級。我 們調整2020年淨利潤預估至108億元，主要反應疫情對2020年銷售的擾動。 我們目標價為10.8港元，基於2020年9倍市盈率，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情發展進度高於預期、新產品銷售遇冷、車市價格戰加劇。
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