華虹半導體（1347.HK）2019年Q4業績點評：等待收入恢復增長機會，關注盈利持續承壓風險
【特別聲明】本訂閲號中所涉及的證券研究信息由光大證券海外TMT研究團隊編寫，僅面向光大證券專業投資者客户，用作新媒體形勢下研究信息和研究觀點的溝通交流。非光大證券專業投資者客户，請勿訂閲、接收或使用本訂閲號中的任何信息。本訂閲號難以設置訪問權限，若給您造成不便，敬請諒解。光大證券研究所不會因關注、收到或閲讀本訂閲號推送內容而視相關人員為光大證券的客户。
光大海外研究
TMT（信息科技）：付天姿/吳柳燕
【文章摘要】
◆4Q19 8寸毛利率下滑，疊加12寸OPEX增加導致經營虧損
4Q19公司實現營收2.43億美元，同比下降2.5%，環比上升1.6%，小幅優於公司指引2.42億，主要由於光罩測試其他類收入增加，而主營業務晶圓銷收入環比持平，其中8寸廠收入環比下降。毛利率為27.2%，同比下降6.8個百分點，環比下降3.8個百分點，處在公司指引區間26-28%內，其中12寸新廠毛利率如期為負，然而8寸廠產能利用率下滑疊加擴產影響毛利率環比下降至28%；同時12寸廠OPEX增加導致公司錄得經營虧損。
◆1Q20業績預期環比大幅下滑，源自產品需求面欠佳
1Q20業績指引顯著低於市場預期，收入環比下降18%（vs彭博一致預期環比上升2%）；毛利率環比大幅下跌至21-23%（vs 彭博一致預期26%）。公司整體產品需求面欠佳缺乏強勁支持，智能卡及低端MOSFET需求面壓力持續，MCU受益ETC滲透於4Q19暫時回升但1H20壓力仍存，IGBT及超級結為目前需求面唯一確定性強勁領域。
◆8寸產能利用率下滑+12寸爬坡緩慢，20年收入增長承壓且利潤存在下滑風險
受疫情衝擊公司短期需求面臨更多不確定性，觀察2Q20疫情結束後其需求恢復情況。8寸產能利用率下滑同時12寸上量進程顯著不及預期，公司20年收入增長承壓，我們預計收入增速在個位數水平；考慮到8寸盈利不及預期、12寸大額折舊及OPEX壓力，我們預計淨利潤存在繼續下滑壓力。
◆估值與評級
鑑於公司核心產品需求面表現遜色於同業，疫情衝擊加大其短期業績壓力，8寸廠存在盈利下滑壓力及12寸收入放量低於預期，下調20-21年淨利潤預測10%/21%至1.17/1.45億美元。未來受益5G IoT新產品儲備放量以及國產替代趨勢推進，其收入端有望恢復健康成長；但需同時關注12寸激進擴產後存在爬坡不及預期風險，將持續抑制公司盈利能力改善。受益半導體行業整體景氣度上行週期，同業估值普遍抬升，參考同業估值區間1.0-5.6倍PB，基於公司經營表現遜色於前排廠商，給予20年1.5倍PB，上調目標價至21.4元港幣，維持“增持”評級。
◆風險提示：中國區晶圓代工競爭加劇；產品結構改善不及預期。
【附錄】
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