大和:下調三大內地航空股目標價 重申對東航、南航“買入”評級
大和研報指,在評估武漢肺炎疫情的影響後,認為疫情將會逐步改善,指現時疫情擴散有下降的跡象,部分航空股現時估值已反映其部分負面因素,該行下調三大內地航空股目標價,當中南航(1055.HK)(600029.SH)目標價由6.2元下調至5.6元,而東航(0670.HK)(600115.SH)則由4.9港元降至4.6港元,兩家公司均重申“買入”評級,而國航(0753.HK)(601111.SH)由8.3港元降至7.3港元,維持“優於大市”評級。
大和指,南航受武漢肺炎爆發的影響未完全反映,但認為根據2003年SARS的經驗,預期將會有更多政策來支持航空業界,這些政策將成其股價的正面催化劑,隨著今年載客需求走軟,下調東航2020年至2021年的每股盈利預測58%-85%。
今年東航的載客量有潛在的下行空間,下調東航2020年至2021年的每股盈利預測28%至84%,預期當疫情受控,旅客人數將會強烈復甦,亦指不排除世衞對中國發出旅遊警告的可能,但認為現時旅遊氣氛走軟,旅遊警告影響有限。
下調國航2020年至2021年的每股盈利預測78%至87%,隨著中國各地對旅遊發出不同程度的限制,雖然預期國航今年第二季的載客量將會復甦,但料國際航線的壓力將會一直持續至其他國家取消對中國的旅遊禁令,並指國航對人民幣貶值的敏感度不大。
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