招商證券:予中燃(0384.HK)、新奧(2688.HK)、潤燃(1193.HK)”買入“評級
招商證券發佈報告稱,維持中國燃氣(0384.HK)“買入”評級,目標價38.3港元;予新奧能源(2688.HK),予”買入“評級,目標價111港元;予華潤燃氣(1193.HK)“買入”評級,目標價41港元。
該行表示,預計中國燃氣2020-2022年每股盈利複合年增長率為18.2%, 其銷氣增長在覆蓋的城市燃氣運營商中為最高。公司當前估值為13.5倍2021財年預測市盈率,較其14.4倍的5年曆史平均市盈率折讓6%。新奧能源的快速增長的綜合能源業務和穩健的銷氣增長將推動其19.2%的2019-2021年每股盈利複合年增長率,該行建議投資者趁近期股價疲弱可逢低買入。
發改委公佈2019年燃氣消費同比增長9.4%,與該行預期一致。該行稱,其覆蓋的城市燃氣運營商在湖北省的業務覆蓋較低,預計燃氣售氣業務將佔他們各自2020年毛利潤的38%-67%。在覆蓋的公司中, 該行預計工商户燃氣銷售將佔燃氣公司2020年燃氣總銷售的41%至71%。此外,根據該行對這些公司的渠道調研,它們在湖北省的城市燃氣項目佔比均很小(例如湖北項目佔各公司燃氣總銷量的比重:中國燃氣為6%;新奧能源沒有相關項目; 華潤燃氣約為5%)。
該行還稱,2019年燃氣消費同比增長9%,達3070億立方米,而2018年同比增長18%,這符合該行在全年經濟放緩情況下的預期。而國內產量和進口量分別達到1740億立方米(同比增長8%)和1310億立方米(同比增長7%。該行預計,天然氣供應將保持充足,除俄羅斯天然氣供應外,未來可能會從美國購買更多的液化天然氣。總體而言,該行預計2020/21年燃氣消費增長均會超過9%。
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