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匯豐研究:下調澳門濠賭股目標價 指未到撈底時
格隆匯 02-06 14:36
匯豐研究發表的報告,表示考慮到新型冠狀病毒爆發帶來的影響,將2020年博彩股EBITDA預測下調12-16%,並假設今年首季餘下時間日均賭收將為5.5億澳門元。該行指出在差的情況下,假設賭場延長關門、復甦延遲,2020年EBITDA或存20%的下行空間,認為仍未到撈底時機,而高端的需求料較具防守性,較喜歡新濠及永利(1128.HK)
該行指出1月份博彩收入受疫情拖累按年跌11%至221億澳門元,而農曆年間七天內地客亦按年跌83%,貴賓廳及中場業務均跌最多50%。雖然防範措施可助管控疫情,但就對博彩收入增長有負面影響,考慮到澳門政府宣佈娛樂場關閉15天的措施,估計首季餘下時間日均賭收值5.5億澳門元,為2019年日均賭收的三成,而首季賭收將按年跌38%,意味貴賓廳及中場將分別跌45%及33%,另外該行亦將2020年博彩收入預測由增長7%調整至跌6%,並將今年EBITDA預測下調12-16%。
該行認為現時有兩大主要的下行風險,一方面是賭場關門措施有機會延長,另一方面是疫情影響有機會持續,該行的基本情況是賭場關門15天將拖累2020年博彩收入按年跌6%,而再延長15天的話2020年賭收則跌9%。該行指出假如復甦延遲,日均僅5.5億澳門元賭收的情況或會持續至第二季,意味將拖累2020年博彩收入按年跌18%。該行將博彩股目標價下調了2-4%,以反映盈利下調等的影響。

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