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中金:維持海螺水泥(0914.HK)目標價67.14港元 評級“跑贏行業”
格隆匯 02-05 15:35
中金髮表的研究報告指,農曆年前市場預期的華東水泥將現“ 開門紅 ”,惟受到農曆年期間爆發的新型冠病毒疫情影響,市場普遍關注此次疫情對海螺水泥(0914.HK) 短期首季及全年業績的影響。在中性假設下,該行測算疫情對海螺首季業績影響約20%,但對全年業績影響僅約4%,估計疫情短期將衝擊首季銷量,但第二季度旺季可期。而為應對此次疫情,絕大部分省市均出台了交通管控、隔離及節後延遲覆工措施,中金認為或致需求啟動延後兩週,並令公司首季水泥銷量按年跌12%-17%
中金預計疫情對全國水泥市場影響的短暫,如疫情受控且天氣條件良好,預計產銷旺季將於3月中上旬開啟。該行預期公司次季將迎來由趕工帶來的需求集中釋放,料有望彌補首季的損失,相信對全年影響無需過分悲觀。該行預計疫情影響全年業績約4%,關注低位買入機會,維持目標價67.14港元,評級“ 跑贏行業 ”。

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