特步國際(1368.HK):Q4流水增速環比回升、折扣及週轉健康,維持“增持”評級
機構:東吳證券
評級:增持
投資要點
事件:特步披露 Q4 零售表現,單季度全渠道零售增長超過 20%,同店 增長低雙位數,較 Q3 皆有提速;零售折扣方面,Q3 恢復至 7.5-8 折水 平,週轉方面則保持在約 4 個月的存貨週期,數據健康。
特步品牌鞏固跑步優勢+簽約林書豪進一步拓展品牌潛力。2019 年,特 步繼續鞏固跑步領域優勢,推出明星產品競速 160X、贊助 37 場國內外 馬拉松賽事並在廈門環島路開設第八家跑步俱樂部“小白樓”,進一步 在跑者中樹立專業形象;8 月簽約林書豪作為新代言人並開展中國行活 動,與其合作開發的“遊雲”戰靴 1 分鐘售罄展現公司在籃球以及運動 生活領域的發展潛力。從全年來看,公司 Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 全渠道零售額增 長分別在 20%+/20%+/約 20%/ 20%+,由此推算全年零售增長超過 20%。
除主品牌外,多品牌業務 2019 開始籌備工作,Saucony 及 Merrell 2020 開始展店,K-SWISS 品牌大中華區業務重定位期待未來發力中國市場: 1) 2019/3/4,公司公告與美國著名鞋業集團 Wolverine World Wide 開 設合資公司經營慢跑品牌 Saucony 及高端户外 Merrell 兩大品牌中國業 務,其中 Saucony 預計 2020Q2 開設首家直營店,全年展店數量計劃在 30-40 家之間,Merrell 預計 2020Q3 起陸續於內地一二線城市鋪設線下 門店 20-30 家並收回電商運營權;2)2019/8/1 特步以自有資金 2.6 億美 金(約合 17.5 億人民幣)全資收購 E-Land Footwear USA,從而取得 K-Swiss、Palladium、Supra 等品牌的全球業務所有權,特步對 K-SWISS 寄予厚望,收購後期待通過 18-24 個月重新定位激發品牌活力,打開中 國市場。
盈利預測與投資評級:KSGB 2019/8/1 並表為公司 19 年報表帶來約 5 億人民幣收入以及 1 億元虧損(收購以及 Supra 品牌重組費用);2020 年全年並錶帶來 15 億+人民幣收入貢獻,利潤端不再對主業形成負擔, 參考該並表影響以及新冠肺炎可能帶來的零售壓力,我們預期公司 19/20/21 年收入同增 29%/23%/10%至 82/101/112 億元,歸母淨利同增至 5%/20%/13%至 6.9/8.3/9.3 億元,對應當前 PE 為 11/9/8X,考慮到肺炎 形勢暫不明朗,維持“增持”評級。
風險提示:1)新冠病毒肺炎疫情影響零售; 2)初涉多品牌運作需要磨 合; 3)新品牌培育的風險

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