銀河娛樂（00027.HK）：璀璨銀河，貴賓業務典範，給予“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
澳門博彩業短期仍承壓，影響因素好轉，有望迎來拐點。受國內經濟下行財富效應減弱、中美貿易摩擦和東南亞同行爭奪貴賓客户的影響，2019前三季度澳門博彩貴賓業務毛收入同比下跌17%，全年博彩總毛收入為2924億澳門元，同比下跌3.4%。但隨中美貿易談判第一階段協議即將達成，國內寬貨幣、鬆財政、擴基建、地產邊際鬆動，貴賓業務負面影響因素減弱，加上新口岸落成和交通便捷程度提升，進一步促進中場業務增長，我們預測2020年博彩總毛收入有望止跌回升，迎來拐點。
中長期供需狀況良好，行業仍有成長空間。中長期來看，澳門路氹地區土地耗盡，在建博彩娛樂場僅有3家，娛樂場供給緊缺；需求端則穩步增長，廣東以外省份訪澳旅客佔總人口比例仍低，加上國內居民收入增加，博彩業成長天花板還很高。
公司的貴賓業務為澳門行業標杆。銀河娛樂從獲得賭牌初期即投入大量精力開發貴賓市場，加上一流的酒店硬件和其他非博彩配套，公司2018年貴賓業務市佔率達27%，遙遙領先第二名永利澳門7個百分點。高質量的服務成功將公司定位在中高端市場，有助於增加VIP客户的粘性、提升對高端中場客户和普通中場中產客户的吸引力。
項目儲備豐富，經營具有彈性。銀河娛樂是六大博彩持牌經營商中持有最多未開發土地的公司，澳門銀河三、四期是路氹地區在建項目中投資額最大的娛樂場，耗資450億元，計劃於2020-2022年分階段落成，建成後澳門銀河的整體面積會增加至約200萬平方尺（18.6萬平方米），房間數翻番到接近9000個。我們認為新的博彩項目有助進一步提升銀河娛樂的整體市場份額，為公司未來發展注入動力。
珠海橫琴和海外擴張拓寬業務邊界。國家將珠海橫琴定位國際休閒旅遊島，未來珠澳在大灣區框架下，兩地博彩和休閒旅遊業務有望進一步協同，打破澳門的土地瓶頸。銀河娛樂作為唯一在橫琴獲批土地的博企，計劃投資超過100億元人民幣在橫琴建造豪華度假村。此外，公司也積極關注海外擴張機會，現已聯合歐洲最大的博彩集團“蒙地卡羅濱海度假酒店集團”和日本財團籌備日本博彩牌照的競標。
投資建議：我們預測公司2019-2021年的收入為518億/543億/593億港元，同比變動-6.2%/4.9%/9.1%，EBITDA為167億/181億/206億港元，同比變動-2.3%/8.3%/14.4%。基於公司未來新娛樂場的經營彈性以及領先的服務品質，我們給予公司14倍EV/EBITDA，對應目標價68.5港元。首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。風險提示：貴賓業務持續下滑風險、澳門銀河三、四期延遲開幕風險、2022年賭牌續約風險、相關政策收緊風險、中國宏觀經濟持續下滑風險。
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