中國生物製藥(1177.HK)：創新藥將持續推出，業績增長無憂，首次覆蓋給予買入評級,目標價 13.39 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：13.39 港元
投資要點
➢ 第三輪帶量採購對公司無負面衝擊，反而有利於提升銷量：
公司有醋酸阿比特龍片、二甲雙胍緩釋片等 6 個品種進入第三輪帶量採購，這些 產品佔公司的收入比例不到 3%，4 個是今年上市的新品種，市場份額低，可以借 助帶量採購提升銷量，這與第一輪帶量採購對恩替卡韋的衝擊有較大的區別。帶 量採購大幅降價及國家醫保目錄談判降價 60%等，對仿製藥行業產生極大的壓 力，公司創新產品豐富，重磅品種有望推動業績持續增長。
➢ 腫瘤重磅創新藥將持續推出：
創新藥安羅替尼 2018 年推出即有銷售額約 12 億元，2019 年上半年銷售額超 13 億元，軟組織肉瘤、晚期非小細胞肺癌外，今年 9 月再次獲批新的適應症—小細 胞肺癌，目前在進行甲狀腺癌的臨牀試驗。安羅替尼的峯值可達 90 億元。PD-1 有望於 2020 年獲批上市，PD-L1 有望 2021 年上市。PD-1 抗體+化療、PD-L1 抗 體+化療的適應症已經進入臨牀Ⅲ階段。公司亦開展了 PD-1 抗體+安羅替尼、PDL1 抗體+安羅替尼的臨牀試驗，多項進入臨牀Ⅰ期或Ⅱ期。曲妥珠單抗、利妥昔 單抗、貝伐珠單抗 2021 年上市。
➢ 新藥研發厚積薄發：
2016/2017/2018 年研發支出分別為 14.3/15.95/20.91 億元，2019 年上半年達 16.26 億元，公司研發投入的增加將迎來新藥品的密集收穫期。重磅呼吸科布地奈德即 將上市。2020/2021 年將有 18/24 個品種上市，峯值銷售 10 億以上的總共有 10 個。2020 年上市的侖伐替尼的峯值超 30 億。
➢ 首次覆蓋給予買入評級,目標價 13.39 港元：
我們預計公司 2019-2021 年 EPS 分別為 0.26、0.30、0.36，基於公司研發積累深 厚，後續有多個重磅產品，我們給予公司 2020 年 39 倍目標 PE，對應目標價為 13.39 港元，較現價有 26.1%的上漲空間，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
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