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傳媒行業2020年策略報告:撥開雲霧,蓄勢待發
格隆匯 12-18 09:25

機構:國元證券

 2020年或複製2013年行情,迎來歷史性機會 傳媒在整個TMT板塊中主要偏後期的應用,而每輪內容產業的繁榮,往往受益於新的通信和硬件技術的升級,反過來技術的普及和推廣也 依賴於新內容的發展。13年底我國正式進入4G時代,隨後手遊板塊蓬勃發展,長視頻、直播崛起,行業從內容到平台的快速發展。也正 是2013年在併購邏輯和4G技術發展的雙重推動下,傳媒迎來一波大的上漲行情(2013Q1-2015Q2),估值水平也在2015年達到巔峯。 隨後移動端人口紅利見頂疊加資本市場對於併購重組的限制和政策面收緊,行業蟄伏4年。展望2020年,我們認為,限制板塊的多重桎梏 已經緩解,商譽減值風險集中釋放,政策監管環境開始放鬆,多個板塊基本面有望底部改善,站在5G時代的起點,傳媒板塊有望迎來新 一輪爆發。 

 子版塊基本面回顧及展望 (1)遊戲:新遊戲表現良好拉動增速略有回暖,頭部集中度繼續提升,頭部企業出海加速。2020年整體看項目儲備豐富,雲遊戲打開想 象空間,估值有望繼續修復。(2)電影行業:今年上游供片受政策影響,2020年將有所改善,部分項目制的頭部電影製作公司有望隨影 片上映迎來業績爆發,而院線公司基本面有望結構性反彈,積極關注春節檔的投資機會。(3)劇集及視頻平台:受排播、税收、片酬、 題材監管等多方面的政策因素影響,2019年上游劇集板塊承壓。十一後,監管環境逐漸改善,庫存積壓逐步緩解,預計上游製作公司和 平台業績明年有望回暖。 

 核心主題機會方面,我們重點看好 5G商用方向,關注雲遊戲、VR/AR以及超高清視頻 5G落地後,運營商亟需消耗大量帶寬的應用,早期以eMBB應用場景爆發為主。(1)雲遊戲:核心是遊戲邏輯運行雲化,打破終端限制, 即點即玩。雲遊戲的出現將帶來硬件廠商話語權削弱,同時分發模式或發生較大變革,優質研發商價值凸顯。(2)Cloud VR/AR:低成本、 輕量化,解決VR/AR用户體驗和終端成本的平衡的痛點,同時5G豐富網絡接入方式。(3)超高清視頻:超高清內容+終端供給充足拉動 大屏市場,智慧家庭流量入口價值提升。

 投資建議 關注以下投資主線:(1)雲遊戲催化下游戲板塊的投資機會,建議關注優質研發商以及流量運營較強的發行商,推薦完美世界、遊族網 絡、吉比特、三七互娛、掌趣科技。(2)政策面及基本面有望迎來結構性改善的內容及院線板塊,推薦光線傳媒、中國電影、華策影視。 (3)超高清視頻相關受益標的,新媒股份、芒果超媒。(4)細分子行業龍頭公司,視覺中國、壹網壹創。

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