瑞銀:升貓眼娛樂(1896.HK)目標價至17港元 評級“買入”
瑞銀髮表研究報告重申對貓眼娛樂(01896.HK)“買入”評級,認為公司在B2C電影售票及B2B電影投資發行方面具領導地位,對其看法正面,當中公司售票業務市佔率今年維持在60%的水平,而其戲票補貼料於今明兩年分別下降38%及8%。而在電影投資及發行方面,該行指出公司在市場內排名分別為第四及第五名,兩方面的票房分別為65.1億元人民幣及54.1億元人民幣。公司股價受惠北水上月已升約36%,但現價僅為2020年預測市盈率的13.5倍,較其他線上媒體同業低約22%,相信市場低估了公司在內容服務方面的長期增長潛力。
該行指出有數部頂級電影已確定會在2020年農曆年上映,當中包括《唐人街探案3》、《中國女排》、《囧媽》、《緊急救援》、《姜子牙》等,大部分導演或系列本身已有很強的票房紀錄,相信可延續國慶檔期的強勁表現,而公司的售票業務將直接受惠農曆年票房表現,加上公司在《緊急救援》及其餘一至兩套電影中有發行或投資優勢,相信可惠及其內容服務業務。
瑞銀相信公司利潤未來可顯着擴張,估計到2021年其經營利潤率可達22.7%(2018年經營虧損率3.7%),主要受惠售票平台競爭減少,而公司自己提供的補貼比例到2021年亦可降至25%(2018年補貼比例56%),加上其他高利潤業務如電商及廣告等亦有助利潤擴張。該行將公司2019/20年經調整溢利預測下調2%及5%,主要考慮其補貼較高,但將目標價由16港元升至17港元。

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