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君實生物(1877.HK):襁褓中的創新藥巨頭,首次覆蓋給予“強烈推薦”評級,目標價39.4港元
格隆匯 12-16 14:38

機構:方正證券

評級:強烈推薦

目標價:39.4港元

核心觀點

 君實生物成立7年以來飛速發展,重磅產品特瑞普利單抗作為首個國產PD-1單抗已經獲批上 市。公司擁有具備源頭創新能力的研發平台、國內一流的抗體藥物生產基地和20款創新藥 產品的豐厚在研產品管線,有逐漸成長為大型藥企的潛質

 特瑞普利單抗已獲批黑色素瘤適應症,正在開展11個關鍵臨牀試驗。我們詳細測算了特瑞 普利單抗9個核心適應症的市場潛力,未來頂峯銷售額有望達到50.8億元,rNPV模型測算給 予190億元估值

 公司另有19款在研產品,其中阿達木單抗生物類似藥已經報產,PCSK9單抗正在臨牀II期試 驗,兩款臨牀中後期產品的rNPV模型測算給予估值10億元和31億元

 盈利預測&估值:公司現階段研發投入大,特瑞普利單抗仍在銷量爬坡,短期尚無法盈利。 預計公司2019-2021年收入分別為7.23億元、11.47億元和16.18億元。我們認為,公司三款核 心產品共231億估值、研發平台和其他在研產品共30億元估值以及17億元現金,合計2019年 278億估值,對應公司股價35.5元,即39.4港元,首次覆蓋給與公司“強烈推薦”投資評級。

 風險提示:產品研發進展不及預期、競爭格局變化超出預期、產品降價幅度超出預期 

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