中國軟件國際(0354.HK)：業績拐點顯現，目標中國版埃森哲，首次給予“增持”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：增持
事項：
公司 12 月 12 日公告稱，公司與華為軟件技術有限公司、重慶市經濟和信息化委員會、重慶兩江新區管理委員會簽署 四方戰略合作協議，合作四方將整合各自優勢資源和能力，構建華為（重慶）人工智能創新中心。
國信計算機觀點：
1）此次與華為緊密合作，為公司與華為鯤鵬產業的進一步有機融合奠定了基礎。公司作為華為最大的 IT 服務廠商，也 是華為雲首家“同舟共濟”型合作伙伴，此次再度加深與華為鯤鵬產業的生態聯繫，建立與華為的全面合作，有望持續 擴大華為客户的 IT 服務份額，並跟隨華為雲和鯤鵬生態快速成長。
2）2019 年公司業績因特殊原因增速略有放緩，因素逐步消除。2019 年業績增速同比下降的主要原因是公司的第一大 客户華為受外部國際環境影響，對公司上半年手機研發業務帶來一些調整，目前其業務已相對穩定，且預期 IT 投資將持 續增加；另外公司內部在轉型升級及培育新客户和新業務，收入體現需要過程。
3）展望未來基石+雲智能業務有望重回高增長軌道。公司非華為客户快速增長，下半年業績回暖超出市場預期。公司未 來業績有望重回高增長軌道，增長點預期主要來自於：來自華為的研發外包持續增長；以平安、騰訊、阿里、百度、微 軟等為代表的新 1 億美金大客户羣的培育；安全可控是我國產業升級的必由之路，行業安可推進帶來新增市場需求；解 放號人力外包專區快速發展，佈局全國性生態；搭建諮詢驅動的全棧式雲服務，跟隨華為雲快速成長。
4）公司估值處於低位。公司目前靜態 PE（2018 年 PE）約14 倍，歷史公司 PE Band 約在15-20 倍之間，目前仍處於 歷史低位。 公司基於與華為合作多年打造的供應商體系以及軟件工程可信的產品交付能力，持續領跑國內 IT 服務行業，伴隨公司綜 合競爭力的不斷提升和客户羣體的不斷擴大，目標打造中國版埃森哲，步入發展快車道。預計 19-21 年歸母淨利潤 7.54/9.31/11.45 億，對應 EPS 為 0.30/0.37/0.45 元，對應當前股價 PE 為 14.2/11.5/9.4X，首次給予“增持”評級。
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