中國生物製藥(1177.HK)：秋寒獨俏，待春暖花開，維持買入評級，目標價 13.0 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：13.0 港元
投資要點
業績符合預期，18 年第三季度基數高：收入和利潤均符合我們預期。分 季度看，18 年三季度因為安羅替尼新上市首個季度即貢獻了非常靚麗的 增量收入和利潤，高基數效應下 19 年三季度增速放緩符合邏輯。分板塊 看，前三季度的業績不乏亮點。在 4+7 首批實施兩個季度後，肝病板塊未 見明顯下滑，Q2-Q3 同比增速分別為-0.5%及 0.7%，主要得益於甘平及甘 美二三季度增速提升，老產品煥發新機。另一個受影響的是鎮痛板塊，前 三季度增速分別為-29.1%、-18.6%、-8.6%，環比趨勢向好的原因是新產 品帕瑞昔布鈉放量及得百安貼劑快速增長迅速調整了板塊產品結構。
談判結果符合預期，醫保打開產品市場空間 ：公司利多卡因凝膠貼膏、 注射用雷替曲塞成功分別降價 77.6%及 55.0%獲納入醫保，產品降價後納 入醫保大幅提升了患者的支付能力，有利於產品的上量。另外，公司管線 中有 10 個仿製藥或類似物此次原研品種也進入醫保，有利於之後產品上 市後快速切入市場。
後續集採邊際影響遞減，期待新品更快放量：關於網傳第三輪集採的 35 個品種目錄，公司涉及的已有一定銷售的品種共 4 個，新上市品種 3 個。 按前三季度銷售額計，前四者銷售額共佔比約為 2.2%，影響很小。後三 者目前銷售額和份額仍較小，集採利大於弊，最終影響視中標情況而定。
盈利預測和估值：我們認為新產品銷售情況超預期，考慮到產品降價和納 入醫保，提升 19-21 年收入預測至 253.2、296.7、347.0 億人民幣，提升幅 度為 4.0%、5.3%、2.2%。降低歸母利潤預測至 30.8、38.0、46.3 億人民 幣，幅度為-3.3%、-2.6%、-4.1%，還原攤銷後對應 19-21 年歸母淨利潤為 35.0、42.2、50.5 億人民幣。維持目標價 13.0 港幣，對應 19-20 年預測市 盈率分別為 47.9 倍與 38.8 倍，還原泰德無形資產攤銷後為 42.1 倍和 34.9 倍，以還原攤銷後核心利潤計算，該目標價對應 19PEG=1.93, 20PEG=1.73。 相比可比的核心資產龍頭公司還是有較高的性價比，維持買入評級。
風險提示：在研產品上市進度不及預期；重點品種降幅超預期；競爭加劇。
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