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融創中國(01918.HK):收購雲南城投資產包,再添約2400萬方優質土儲,維持“買入“評級,目標價52.46港元
格隆匯 11-29 14:53

機構:東方證券

評級:買入

目標價:52.46港元

事件

公司公告收購雲南城投持有的環球世紀及時代環球各51%股權,交易對價為152.7億元。

核心觀點

收購雲南城投資產包,再添約2400萬方土儲。公司此次收購的雲南城投旗下資產包括18個已確權的項目,交易對價為152.7億元,合計建築面積3071.6萬方,可售面積2771.6萬方,其中截止至目前的未售面積2390.1萬方,對應貨值接近2600億,收購樓面價僅1794元/平。18個確權項目中7成位於成都、長沙、武漢、昆明等二線城市,1成位於環成都和環武漢區域,2成位於西雙版納、西昌等旅遊城市。此外,根據公告數據,被收購方項目公司在股權交割完成後30日內,將會向融創分配利潤71.4億元,其中36.4億元為公司按照股權比例分配所得,剩餘約35億元為超額分配利潤。

招拍掛難覓良機,收併購一錘定音。自三季度起公司始終維持較為審慎的投資策略,截止至9月公司今年累計獲取項目176個,其中三季度僅新增39個項目。進入四季度,招拍掛市場仍維持低迷,房企普遍維持謹慎的投資策略,但對於有能力的房企而言同樣是擇機補充庫存的機會,融創收併購拿地模式的競爭優勢在當前市場環境中將會越發明顯。不考慮此次收購,截止至9月公司拿地面積/銷售面積為231%,在TOP20房企中遙遙領先,充足的土儲將為明後年的銷售增長奠定堅實的基礎。截止至10月,公司累計銷售金額為4339.2億元,同比增長17%增速在TOP5房企中暫時領先。

財務預測與投資建議

維持買入評級,維持目標價52.46港元。我們預測公司2019-2021年核心淨利潤每股收益為6.52/8.04/10.28元。可比公司2019年PE估值為7X,我們給予公司2019年PE倍數7X,對應目標價45.64元,摺合52.46港元。

風險提示

房地產銷售規模不及預期。佈局城市調控政策力度超預期。

土地儲備的拓展不及預期。其他收入及收益等非經常性損益的大幅波動。

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