中國教育集團 ( 839.HK )： 19財年業績符合預期，利潤承壓，但未來複蘇可期，維持“買入”評級，目標價14.0港元
機構：招商證券
評級：買入
目標價：14.0港元
■19財年核心利潤按年同比增長17.5%，收入按年同比增長51%
■19財年重大收購令利潤率承壓，毛利率和核心經營利潤率分別下跌3.3和8.1個百分點
■19財年利潤承壓但符合預期，集團內學校的經營改善及新增併購驅動20財年及之後財年的盈利增長；維持買入評級
學校、學生人數及收入快速增長
中教控股在19財年並表4間新併購學校，集團目前共有9間學校。如果包括最近收購的澳大利亞國王學院，中教控股的學校數量則達到10所，學生總數超過18萬人，相比18財年的12萬人和17財年的7.5萬人有顯著增長。19財年收入達19億元人民幣，同比增長51%。核心經營利潤同比增長27%，利潤率下降主要是由於19財年新收購的三間獨立學院。中教控股需要為這些獨立學院向其各自所屬的公立大學支付管理費，一定程度上拖累了財務表現。
20財年前景良好，內生併購雙輪驅動
管理層預計20財年維持2~3個併購的目標。公司去年調查接觸了125個併購標的，並持有超過40億元人民幣的現金餘額。另外公司在今年9月/10月收取了不低於20億元人民幣的學費，預計中教控股共有60多億元人民幣可用資金用於收購。因此我們對於中教控股達成收購目標充滿信心。管理層表示，廣州白雲學院和松田大學的擴建正有序進行，無新增併購的情況下，將在20/21財年的預計資本支出中主要體現。
微調盈利預測及目標價–下調估值倍數
我們更新了預測假設，對收入和利潤率預測做了小幅調整，將20/21財年的預測核心利潤下調7.6%和4.3%。我們預計中教控股20財年及21財年盈利分別增長38%和11%。鑑於中教控股的規模擴大以及增速放緩，我們認為其估值應接近同行的水平，因此我們將其目標市盈率從28倍下調至24倍（基於未來12個月的盈利）。由於中教控股管理層在教育領域享有良好聲譽和穩健的往績經營記錄，我們認為中教控股相對其他高教公司仍將保持一定的估值溢價。整體而言，我們將目標價由先前的14.4港元微調至14.0港元。
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