里昂:維持新地(0016.HK)“沽售”評級 目標價103.1港元
里昂發表研究報告,指新地(0016.HK)
以逾422億港元投得西九高鐵站上蓋商業地,土地價格破紀錄,但此價格卻是市場估值410億至630億港元的下限。在寫字樓租金下跌及空置率上升的情況下,這進一步加強了該行對香港寫字樓市場的負面看法。
雖然新地表示將會邀請一些合作伙伴參與開發,但該行估計建築期七年的情況下,初始成本收益率僅為4.7%,並不吸引。考慮到未來十二個月香港甲級寫字樓的租金將錄20%跌幅,因此初始成本收益率料或低至3.8%。
該行指,看到此地皮與附近的九龍ICC存有協同效應。然而,在市場下跌的情況下進行此項收購,將引發市場對新地現時在香港投資組合的關注,預期在未來七年間每年的資本開支為27億港元。
在市場持續存在不確定性下,該行對新地這次的收購不感興奮,維持對公司“
沽售
”投資評級,目標價維持在103.1港元不變。
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