永利澳門(01128.HK):2019年第3季度業績符合預期,維持“中性“評級,目標價16.60港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:中性
目標價:16.60港元
永利澳門2019年第3季度正常化贏率下經調整物業EBITDA同比下降16.9%至3.232億美元,高於我們的預期2.4%。2019年第3季度公司貴賓分部與中場分部業務皆表現不佳,導致市場份額下降。總淨收入同比下降18.1%至11億美元。貴賓業務收入同比下跌37.1%至185億美元,貴賓贏額為5.564億美元,同比下降41.4%,遠差於澳門博彩業貴賓業務同比下降22.5%的表現。中場分部贏額為6.91億美元,同比上升8.1%,仍差於澳門博彩業中場分部上升17.7%的表現。
我們分別調整公司2019至2021年經調整物業EBITDA預測-1.3%、0.1%和4.4%。我們預計2019至2021年經調整EBITDA將達到105.99億港元、99.26億港元和109.99億港元,分別應-14.2%、-6.3%和10.8%的增長率。公司2018年的經調整EBITDA利潤率為31.2%,我們預計EBITDA利潤率將在2019年下降至29.3%。今年永利澳門物業的翻新工程擾亂了正常經營,同時部分經營支出保持不變,給EBITDA利潤率帶來下行壓力。我們預計2019至2021年每股收益將分別達到0.914港元、1.006港元和1.198港元,分別對應-24.1%、10.0%和19.1%的增長率。
我們將永利澳門的目標價由15.70港元上調至16.60港元,維持“中性”投資評級。管理層預計永利澳門物業的新賭場和完全改建的萬利大樓將在2019年末和2020年初開業。但我們不認為這將成為公司發展的主要催化劑,因為公司的競爭對手也推出了升級計劃。

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