國泰君安:基建投資增速下跌空間不大 重申行業“跑贏大市”評級
國泰君安發表報告,重申基建行業“跑贏大市”評級。內地1-10月全國固定資產投資額同比增5.2%,增速較預期低0.2個百分點。10月份,全國固定資產投資增速為7.3%,環比提高2.6個百分點。國泰君安認為,2019年房地產開發投資環境或優於2018年,預計投資增速可維持在10%或以上。10月基建投資增速下跌確實差於預期,但公用事業及公路等分部投資增速卻逆勢增加,反映基建投資細分行業中仍有一定機會。
國泰君安稱,基建領域得到了國家政策的有力扶持。國務院總理李克強在11月13日的國常會提到將降低部分基礎設施項目最低資本金比例。並且表示,基礎設施領域和其他國家鼓勵發展的行業項目,可通過發行權益型、股權類金融工具籌措資本金。如今政府對基建投資的關注程度遠高於年初,在貨幣及財政政策上都積極支持。這些均對基建投資增速構成重要託底,增速進一步下跌的空間不大。
該行考慮到目前行業低迷的估值已反映大部分的風險,而大型工程承包企業已公佈的首3季度業績,新籤合同數據理想。維持中國鐵建(01186.HK)、中國中鐵(00390.HK)的“買入”評級,以及中交建(01800.HK)、中國建築國際(03311.HK)和中國通號(03969.HK)的“收集”評級。
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