永利澳門(01128.HK)：19年第三季業績遜預期，貴賓廳業務拖後腿，給予“增持”評級，目標價20.5 港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：增持
目標價：20.5 港元
19年第三季經調整EBITDA遜預期
永利澳門19年第三季淨收入為10.7億美元，同比下跌18.1%；經調整物業EBITDA為3.01美元，同比下跌26.4%；經調整物業EBITDA利潤率為28.1%，同比減少3.1個百分點，環比減少1.1個百分點。期內，集團貴賓廳轉碼數及毛收入分別同比下跌37.1%及41.3%；中場毛收入同比增長6.9%，環比增長3.6%。永利在貴賓廳及中場毛收入表現均比同業遜色，主要由於1)永利皇宮受到新濠天地及美獅美高梅進入爬坡期帶來的競爭；2)澳門永利西面娛樂場裝修造成賭客分流至其他競爭對手；3)以高端定位的永利受到宏觀經濟放緩的影響最大。
四季度開局貴賓廳表現穩定，中場繼續有增長
管理層表示自10月起貴賓廳表現開始回穩，而10月中場投注額同比上升8%，帶動集團10月錄得日均4百萬美元的經調整物業EBITDA。管理層對明年賭收表現樂觀，並預期2020年開始有增長。管理層認為澳門輕軌及廣珠城軌延長線的通車將會是明年推動中場賭收的催化劑。
澳門永利翻新工程將在明年首季完成
集團繼續對澳門永利西面娛樂場及酒店進行翻新工程，翻新後將會增設44張中場賭枱、兩間新餐廳及7,000平方米的零售空間，項目預計在19年第四季至20年首季完成。另一方面，集團預計在2021年展開永利皇宮二期“水宮蓮宮”的首期建設工程，預計在2024年開業，項目將提供650酒店客房。
調整盈利預測，微降目標價至20.5港元，下調至“增持”評級
我們分別調整19-21年經調整EBIDTA預測-2.3%、-0.7%及-0.1%至95.6億港元、105.1億港元及115.8億港元。我們預測19-21年集團經調整EBITDA分別同比-11.3%%、+10.0%及+10.2%%，把目標價從20.7港元下調至20.5港元。目前澳門貴賓廳毛收入已跌至接近上一輪週期低位，我們認為貴賓廳再大幅下行的空間有限，由於永利擁有較高的經營槓桿及貴賓廳的業務佔比，如果中美貿易磨擦出現緩和，而內地經濟出現邊際改善，公司業績彈性會是最大。考慮到現價對應目標價只有17.3%的潛在升幅，我們把評級從“買入”下調至“增持”。
風險提示：(一)簽證政策收緊；(二)賭場續牌風險；(三)經濟放緩打擊博彩需求。
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