融信中國(03301.HK)：穩健成長並重，估值非常吸引，維持“買入”評級，目標價 15.60 港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價 ：15.60 港元
反向路演紀要：重慶公司發展
我們近日參加了公司的反向路演，參觀了公司位於重慶及西安的項目。重慶市場發展令人印象深刻。公司17年通過招拍掛進入重慶，今年在重慶拿下三幅地塊，我們估算目前在重慶總土地儲備約46.0萬平方米，權益土儲33.0萬平方米，佔公司總權益土儲約2.5%。我們預計今年重慶市場將貢獻約20億銷售，由於貨值充足，我們認為明年區域銷售有望翻倍。我們相信經驗豐富的本地管理層、重慶房地產市場可觀的容量及穩健的基本面是這一區域公司迅速發展的主要原因，我們相信隨着重慶房價的穩步上升，以改善型產品為主的融信有望進一步提高市場份額與知名度。重慶這一新市場的良好發展亦證實了公司全國擴張的能力，我們對公司進一步提升規模有信心。
目前價格隱含預期過於悲觀，估值吸引
目前公司估值估值僅為19年3.6倍，低於可比同業，亦處於公司歷史均值減一個標準差的位置，我們認為目前價格所含的預期過於悲觀：1）市場擔憂銷售增長。公司前10月完成合約銷售1,090億人民幣，同比增15.2%，完成1400億銷售目標的77.8%，去年10月銷售目標完成率為78.9%，我們認為公司銷售節奏符合預期，完成目標沒有問題。2）對房企流動性擔憂。公司19年以來穩步降槓桿，淨負債率由18年末的105.4%降至19年中76.6%，現金對短債倍數由1.01x升至1.66x；前三季度拿地開支279億人民幣，相當於同期合約銷售的29.7%，資產負債結構及流動性均優於上市房企平均水平3）擔憂利潤率。公司今年拍了35塊地，其中23塊為0-10%溢價，平均地價5,505元/平，相當於同期售價的26.1%，另外公司的融資成本亦穩步下降，我們相信公司盈利能力將穩步提升。
重申15.60港元的目標價，維持買入評級
我們認為公司目前估值吸引，流動性進一步寬鬆有望支撐公司估值修復，19年實現較快利潤增長有望成為股價催化劑。我們重申15.60港元的目標價，對應5.6倍的19年PE，目標價對應現價有67.9%的潛在升幅。
風險提示：（一）房地產政策大幅收緊；（二）人民幣匯率波動
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