一文了解券商於港交所(00388.HK)季績後最新目標價及觀點
港交所(00388.HK)今早股價靠穩，昨日(6日)中午公布第三季度業績。收入及其他收益按年跌2.8%至39.87億元，高於本網綜合券商預測的37.18億元上限。純利按年跌9.7%至22.07億元，每股盈利為1.76元。稅前溢利按年跌8.5%至26.05億元，高於本網綜合券商預測的24.25億元上限。EBITDA按年跌1.27%至30.38億元，券商指季績優預期因投資收入較高。
【季績優預期 因投資收入】
期內，股本證券產品平均每日成交金額708億元，按年倒退22%。衍生權證、牛熊證及權證平均每日成交金額197億元，按年倒退16%。首三季平均每日成交金額905億元，按年倒退21%。港股通方面，首三季滬股通平均每日成交金額220億元人民幣，按年增長98%。深股通平均每日成交金額200億元人民幣，按年增長1.4倍。債券通平均每日成交金額88億元人民幣，同樣按年增長1.4倍。
港交所指，滬、深港通收益創新高、新股市場再度暢旺，再加上投資收益取得不俗回報，抵銷宏觀環境影響下略見回軟的現貨市場成交量。不繼續對倫敦證券交易所集團提出要約，集團雖然失望，但仍會繼續專注實現三年戰略規劃，嚴控成本，抓緊進一步發展增長機會。
【券商指阿里若成功上市可短暫釋疑慮】
美銀美林指，港交所首九個月純利遜預期，收入按季跌7.1%。該行亦指，第三季本港交易量是過去兩年最弱，相信是因為香港情況及宏觀不明朗因素所致。除非情況繼續惡化，否則營業額難再明顯下行，但同時亦無強勁催化劑。該行又指，若阿里巴巴成功上市，可幫助港交所短暫消除部份疑慮，連同國內量寬政策，可有助增加交投量。長遠中國與新加坡的衍生工具交易協議，將影響香港的衍生工具市場。該行維持港交所「中性」評級，目標價263元不變。
瑞銀發表報告，市場弱勢致港交所主要業務收入下降，很大程度符該行預期。該行注意到來自聯營公司的收入增長至1,100萬元，相信是由於債券通日均交易額期內按季增長80%所帶動，因而將2019至2021年度每股攤薄盈利預測調整，今年下調3%至7.68元，明年輕微上調至8.65元，2021年上調約2%至每股9.43元。該行亦上調對港交所目標價，由240元升至250元，維持「中性」評級。
本網最新綜合10間券商對其投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
第一上海│買入│300元
野村│買入│309元-291.8元
匯豐環球研究│買入│285元
摩根士丹利│增持│280元
美銀美林│中性│263元
摩根大通│增持│250元
瑞銀│中性│240元-250元
高盛│中性│235元
光大証券│中性│225.1元
花旗│減持│210元券商│觀點第一上海│業績穩健
野村│季績遜預期，港股表現較弱
匯豐環球研究│季績堅韌
摩根士丹利│投資收入推動業績勝預期
美銀美林│季績遜預期，股價料區間上落
摩根大通│收入勝預期
瑞銀│季度市況疲軟，A股期貨未見新消息
高盛│料未來一年業績增長停滯
光大証券│維持長期相對收益目標不變
花旗│料市場輕微下調盈測，欠缺盈利催化劑
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