宏利投資管理預期聯儲局明年3月或被迫再減息
美國聯儲局一如市場預期減息25個基點,宏利投資管理首席經濟師兼宏觀經濟策略部主管Frances Donald表示,聯儲局主席鮑威爾向市場發出頗為強烈的訊號,於三次利率「中期調整」後將暫時停止再減息,選擇觀望一段日子。惟他指出,地緣政治風險改善也是該局採取觀望態度的原因之一,認為環球增長趨於平穩,未來甚至再加速,以及金融體系狀況維持寬鬆,部份股票繼續上升,以及美元匯價相對上維持上落格局,預期聯儲局或最快於2020年3月,在不情願的情況下被迫再減息。
宏利投資管理提醒,在美國製造業衰退或否蔓延至服務業及就業市場,有理由相信若就業市場持續惡化,足以令聯儲局再減息。
至於不久將來會否出現加息?他預期在未來數年將不會出現,因通脹水平不足以支持聯儲局加息,從長期走勢的角度看,利率將在一段非常長時間維持低企,認為這方面的重要性比預期減息25基點或未來六個月會否作多次減息更高。他續指,現實情況是目前處於低增長、低通脹的環境,長遠來看將會妨礙聯儲局實施利率正常化的能力。
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