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澳博控股(0880.HK ) :中場業務帶動EBITDA超預期,維持“買入”評級,目標價9.7港元
格隆匯 10-31 08:35

機構:廣發證券

評級:買入

目標價:9.7港元

核心觀點

貴賓業務下滑影響有限,中場業務加速增長

3季度公司博彩毛收入同比下降13.3%,其中貴賓毛收入同比顯著下降42.6%。但是公司目前EBITDA中只有7%來自於貴賓業務,貴賓業務的下滑對公司業績的影響有限。公司中場毛收入同比增長12.1%,同比增速較1,2季度有所加快。考慮到3季度後兩個月澳門的遊客人次受到香港局面的影響,同比增速放緩至高單位數,公司中場業務表現出色。經調整EBITDA為9.50億港幣,同比增長3.4%。經調整EBITDA的增長主要是由於利潤率更高的中場業務繼續快速增長。

4季度至今中場業務勢頭良好,貴賓業務有所趨穩

國慶黃金週期間的良好表現在10月份繼續延續。旗艦物業新葡京在10月前28天的中場業務毛收入同比增長17%,環比增長16%。而同期的貴賓業務轉碼額也環比增長22%,有所趨穩。

上葡京項目將於近期開始接受政府驗收

目前上葡京項目基本完工,將從本週開始接受各種政府驗收。上葡京項目計劃將新聘用員工6000人,內部轉移2000人,這也將緩解現有物業的員工宂餘,壓縮成本。如果政府驗收過程順利,員工的招聘工作預計將從春節後開始。

預計公司19/20年EBITDA為41.5/45.8億港元

在何超瓊與霍氏基金明確對澳博的控制權後,公司治理有望逐步改善。同時考慮到上葡京項目開業日期的鄰近,公司相對於行業的估值折扣有望繼續收窄。我們維持公司合理價值9.7港元,維持買入評級。

風險提示

博彩毛收入市場份額持續下滑的風險;上葡京項目延期開業的風險;外匯管制收緊的風險。

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