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廣汽集團(2238.HK):自主明顯承壓,日系穩步增長,維持“買入”評級,目標價9.2港元
格隆匯 10-31 08:29

機構:華西證券

評級:買入

目標價:9.2港元

事件概述公司發佈三季報:2019Q1-Q3實現營收426.8億元,同比下滑19.2%;歸母淨利63.4億元,同比下滑35.8%,扣非後歸母淨利43.6億元,同比下滑52.7%;加權平均淨資產收益率7.95%,較上年減少5.54pp。其中,2019Q3實現營收146.8億元,同比下滑10.0%,環比增長5.0%;2019Q3歸母淨利14.2億元,同比下滑52.0%,環比下滑33.9%。

分析判斷

自主業績承壓,毛利率大幅下滑

報告期內公司業績大幅下滑,自主明顯承壓:

1)2019Q1-Q3公司營收同比下滑19.2%,主要原因在於廣汽乘用車同期批發銷量同比下滑29.8%;2019Q3廣汽乘用車批發銷量增速未見明顯好轉,同比下滑28.6%,環比下滑8.8%。

2)2019Q1-Q3歸母淨利同比下滑35.8%,主要原因在於廣汽乘用車批發銷量下滑的同時,通過折扣等手段主動降低終端庫存,導致公司整體毛利率大幅下滑,2019Q1-Q3毛利率8.6%,較上年減少13.42pp;2019Q3毛利率6.1%,較上年減少12.81pp。

3)2019Q1-Q3研發費用11.3億元,同比增長81.5%,主要是報告期內無形資產攤銷增加所致,廣汽研究院堅持自主品牌新技術及產品開發,打造核心競爭力,研發成本相應增長。

4)2019Q1-Q3歸母淨利同比下滑35.8%,下滑幅度明顯小於扣非後歸母淨利增速,主要受非經常性收益項目影響,報告期內政府補貼20.3億元,較上年同期增加14.9億元。

5)除去2019Q3投資收益25.5億元,公司(主要為廣汽乘用車)單季度虧損11.3億元;預計2019Q4隨廣汽新能源產品週期上行,兩款純電動全新車型(轎車AionS、SUVAionLX)終端上量,廣汽自主將逐步實現銷量及業績修復。

日系合資廣本、廣豐延續上升趨勢

2019Q1-Q3公司旗下兩大日系合資品牌廣本、廣豐始終保持逆市增長,貢獻穩定投資收益:

1)2019Q1-Q3廣本銷量同比增長10.1%。我們判斷,目前產能利用率仍超100%;暢銷車型雅閣、凌派、繽智9月批發銷量分別為1.5、1.7、1.4萬輛,凌派數據亮眼,同環比雙升,同比增長638.9%,環比增長28.2%;2019H2將推出奧德賽混動版、繽智改款,重磅車型“廣本版CR-V”皓影已開啟預售。

2)2019Q1-Q3廣豐銷量同比增長17.6%。暢銷產品雷凌2019H1換代並推出PHEV增配,雷凌系列(包含燃油、HEV及PHEV)9月銷量2.2萬輛,繼凱美瑞和漢蘭達後成為廣豐又一大爆款車型;中期產品週期蓄力,2020H1年廣豐將推出“廣豐版Rav4”緊湊型SUV威蘭達;長期來看,廣汽與豐田簽訂《深化戰略合作框架協議》,豐田中國電動化戰略中,廣豐逐漸成為A角,在新能源技術及車型開發上深度綁定。

3)我們認為,中長期行業結構變化趨勢利好日系合資品牌擴張,主要受益於油價波動上行導致的汽車消費情緒轉變,未來節油經濟、低售後成本等偏好有望進一步提升。

投資建議

公司結構繼續分化,自主品牌業績承壓,日系合資逆市增長。由於自主業績下滑幅度低於市場預期,我們下調盈利預測:預計公司2019-2021年營收660.3、684.5、752.4億元(下調前722.1、809.4、867.5億元),歸母淨利84.7、104.2、117.9億元(下調前為111.9、123.3、135.0億元);EPS分別為0.83、1.02、1.15元(下調前為1.09、1.20、1.32元),按照1:1.11的人民幣港元匯率計算,港股EPS分別為0.92、1.13、1.28港元(下調前為1.21、1.34、1.47港元),對應PE9.0、7.3、6.4倍。鑑於公司日系佔比高、品牌結構佔優,且乘用車行業臨近修復,風險溢價提升有望驅動行業β上行,給予2019年10倍PE(原先目標PE為8倍),目標價由9.68港元下調至9.2港元,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示

車市下行風險,影響車企銷量;老款車型競爭力削弱,終端銷量嚴重下滑;新車型上市不達預期,導致銷量增長乏力;汽車消費刺激政策落地時間及效果不達預期。

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