預期推動上漲,甲醇期價表現偏強
據中證報,沙特遭襲事件的風波過後,甲醇市場經歷了短暫的風險溢價調整,近幾個交易日,市場博弈焦點重回供需基本面,其中需求轉暖推動甲醇價格重心明顯上移。進入9月以來,需求轉暖跡象逐漸顯性化。一方面,傳統下游需求的季節性旺季來臨,甲醛、MTBE等下游表現趨於好轉,另一方面,甲醇制烯烴領域的增量需求預期進入兑現期。中期來看,國內外甲醇市場仍有一定規模的擴能,考慮到新產能投放延遲因素,部分新裝置延遲釋放產能將令供應壓力由1月合約後移至5月合約,由此供需格局的潛在變化也將支持正向套利策略。
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