花旗:龍光地產銷售強勁,盈利將長期穩定增長
著名國際投資銀行花旗銀行發佈最新研究報告,繼續推薦龍光地產(03380.HK)為中國地產行業首選,目標價為16.88港元。花旗指出,集團前9月合約銷售同比增長31%至約717億元,已經完成了84%的2019全年合約銷售目標,目標完成率位居地產行業前列,顯示了公司強大的執行力。
花旗預測集團將超額完成2019全年850億元的合約銷售目標,2019年將實現100億元的核心利潤,盈利可見度高。花旗並預測集團合約銷售及核心利潤在2020-2021年保持20%的穩定持續增長,繼續保持行業領先的盈利能力及超過20%的ROE。
花旗並指,城市更新業務於2019上半年貢獻了18億元的核心利潤,已經成為集團新的業績增長引擎。集團已在以粵港澳大灣區為主的高價值區域佈局城市更新項目62個,對應面積1870萬平米,城市更新貨值超過3200億,其中有80%的城市更新貨值分佈在深圳/惠州/東莞/珠海等集團可自主改造的城市,先發優勢顯著,盈利可見度高。花旗預期集團未來每年新孵化城市更新貨值不低於300億元,預測城市更新未來每年可貢獻集團核心利潤10%-20%。
花旗認為,基於“區域深耕+城市更新”的雙輪驅動戰略,集團將是粵港澳大灣區產業結構升級和高淨值人口持續流入的主要受益者和資源整合者。集團在粵港澳大灣區土地含金量最高,具有跨週期穩健增長能力,並可維持40%的長期派息率,為投資者持續帶來豐厚回報。
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