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廣汽集團(02238.HK):日系穩步上升,自主環比改善,維持“買入”評級,目標價9.68港元
格隆匯 10-15 09:06

機構:華西證券

評級:買入

目標價:9.68港元

事件概述

公司發佈9月產銷快報:公司單月汽車批發總銷量18.9萬輛,同比減少4.8%(8月同比減少6.8%),環比增長16.6%。其中,廣汽本田單月銷量7.1萬輛,同比增長1.4%;廣汽豐田6.5萬輛,同比增長6.9%;廣汽乘用車3.4萬輛,同比減少22.3%;廣汽菲克0.6萬輛,同比減少38.6%;廣汽三菱1.2萬輛,同比增長4.2%。公司2019年前三季度汽車累計銷量150.8萬輛,同比減少3.2%。

分析判斷

日系雙雄廣本、廣豐延續上升勢頭

乘聯會披露,2019年9月廣義乘用車批發銷量192.9萬輛,同比減少6.3%,環比增長13.8%,“金九銀十”汽車消費及需求如期回暖;同期公司旗下日系合資雙雄批發銷量保持逆市增長:

1)廣汽本田9月銷量同比增長1.4%,環比增長25.4%。我們判斷,目前產能利用率仍超100%;暢銷車型雅閣、凌派、繽智9月批發銷量分別為1.5、1.7、1.4萬輛,凌派數據亮眼,同環比雙升,同比增長638.9%,環比增長28.2%;2019H2將推出奧德賽混動版、繽智改款,重磅車型“廣本版CR-V”皓影已開啟預售。

2)廣汽豐田9月銷量同比增長6.9%,環比增長12.1%。暢銷產品雷凌2019H1換代並推出PHEV增配,雷凌系列(包含燃油、HEV及PHEV)9月銷量2.2萬輛,繼凱美瑞和漢蘭達後成為廣豐又一大爆款車型;中期產品週期蓄力,2020H1年廣豐將推出“廣豐版Rav4”緊湊型SUV威蘭達;長期來看,廣汽與豐田簽訂《深化戰略合作框架協議》,豐田中國電動化戰略中,廣豐逐漸成為A角,在新能源技術及車型開發上深度綁定。

3)我們認為,中長期行業結構變化趨勢利好日系合資品牌擴張,主要受益於油價波動上行導致的汽車消費情緒轉變,未來節油經濟、低售後成本等偏好有望進一步提升。

廣汽自主老產品繼續去庫,新能源nAion系列上量

廣汽乘用車(主要為傳祺品牌)2019年9月銷量同比減少22.3%,環比增長12.7%,我們判斷,傳祺老產品繼續去庫存,環比增量主要源於廣汽新能源AionS:

1)截至2019年8月,基於純電專屬平台推出的首款轎車AionS批發銷量攀升至3,815輛,從產品定位及定價來看,未來上升仍有空間。

2)Aion系列產品產品週期不斷。豪華智能超跑SUV—AionLX將於2019Q4上市,屆時廣汽將擁有5款新能源車型續航在500-600公里範圍內,全方位覆蓋產品類型(包含混動和純電動)。

投資建議

行業下行日系逆市增長,提升公司業績穩定性;自主品牌傳祺於去庫存接近尾聲,大概率於42019Q4隨行業實現銷量復甦,自主品牌賦予公司業績彈性。我們維持盈利預測:預計公司2019-2021年歸母淨利分別為111.9億元、123.3億元、135.0億元,同比增長2.6%、10.2%、9.5%;EPS分別為1.09元、1.20元、1.32元,按照1:0.90的人民幣港元匯率計算,港股EPS分別為1.21港元、1.34港元、1.47港元,對應PE6.7倍、6.1倍、5.6倍。鑑於公司日系佔比高、品牌結構佔優,給予2019年8倍PE,目標價9.68港元,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示

車市下行風險,影響車企銷量;老款車型競爭力削弱,終端銷量嚴重下滑;新車型上市不達預期,導致銷量增長乏力;汽車消費刺激政策落地時間及效果不達預期。

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