吉利汽車 ( 00175.HK ) ：9月折扣力度加大，銷量邊際改善明顯，維持“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
事件：公司9月實現銷售11.38萬輛，同比-9%，環比+12%，1-9月累計銷售95.81萬輛，同比-16%，已完成136萬輛年度目標的70%。
銷量跌幅收窄，領克環比+24%。公司9月銷量11.38萬輛，同比-8.52%，較8月（同比-19.36%）提升10.84PCT。其中，領克銷量高於市場預期，實現銷售1.36萬輛，同比-8.5%，環比+24%，吉利品牌銷售10.02萬輛，同比-8.5%，環比+11.1%。新能源方面，公司9月銷售8765輛，同比-16.27%，環比+10.99%。
9月折扣力度加大，主力車型銷量邊際提升明顯。根據我們爬蟲提取的行業終端價格與折扣率數據庫，公司9月促銷力度加大（折扣率8.31%，環比+0.99PCT），帶動主力車型的銷量呈現改善態勢，其中共四款車型月銷過萬：
博越：9月實現銷量2.14萬輛，同比+0.52%，為今年以來的首次正增長，較8月（-4.16%）提升4.68PCT。折扣方面，博越5月以來折扣率持續下行，由14.74%降至12.47%，9月首次加大折度（13.11%），環比+0.64PCT。除折扣外，新上市的博越pro的經銷商鋪貨也是一個因素。?新帝豪：9月實現銷量1.59萬輛，同比-20.75%，較8月（-31.14%）下滑幅度有所收窄。9月折扣率略有上漲（14.27%），環比+1.17PCT。?繽越：上市以來持續加大折扣力度，9月折扣率3.10%，環比+1.6PCT，實現銷量1.11萬輛。
帝豪GS：實現銷量1.07萬輛，同比-19.86%，較8月（-47.05%）提升27.19PCT，或由於9月新上市1.4T車型，經銷商主動備貨所致。折扣方面，帝豪GS較為平穩，9月折扣率6.26%，環比+0.07PCT。
新車週期+電動化，車型換代穩步推進。19年起，公司新車型週期逐步開啟，新/舊車型換代穩步推進。9月成熟車型（帝豪系列、遠景/遠景SUV、博越）合計銷量6.43萬輛，同比-25.23%，較8月（同比-37.08%）提升11.85PCT，新車型（領克系列、繽瑞、繽越、嘉際、幾何A、星越）合計銷量3.77萬輛，環比+10.33%。同時領克將在一年內推出02/03新能源版及2款全新車型；吉利品牌將MPV/SUV/轎車各一款新車及主要車型的新能源化版本；幾何品牌也將推出一款全新產品，未來銷量結構持續改善，單車ASP有望進一步提升。
與沃爾沃合併發動機業務，未來協同發展進一步深化。公司深化整合沃爾沃技術，10月公告將合併沃爾沃與吉利的發動機業務，成為下一代發動機和混合動力系統的全球供應商，未來吉利旗下車型將望共產品搭載高效領先的動力總成及混合動力系統，進一步提升產品系列的技術實力和品牌力。
盈利預測與投資建議。公司作為自主龍頭積澱深厚，技術實力、品牌力、新車發佈力度與合資品牌差距不斷減小。預計公司19-21年歸母淨利潤分別為94.7/128.9/149.8億元，對應PE分別為11.7/8.6/7.4倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：行業銷量或不及預期；公司新車銷量或不及預期。
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