重慶農村商業銀行( 3618.HK )： 利潤提速，回A在即，給予“增持”評級
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
本報告導讀：
2019年年9月月6日，重慶農商行A股發行申請獲得中國證監會的核準。回顧其2019上半年業績，營收放緩，利潤提速。預計隨着非息收入恢復增長，未來營收增速將回升。
摘要：
投資建議：考慮成本優化和債券配置策略變化帶來節税效應，上調19/20/21年淨利潤增速預測至12.36%(+6.04pc)/11.80%(+6.03pc)/12.92%(+6.97pc)，對應EPS1.02/1.14/1.28元，BVPS7.89/8.67/9.56元。現價對應4.00/3.58/3.17倍PE，0.52/0.47/0.43倍PB。維持目標價7.00港元（對應19年0.80倍PB），維持增持評級。
利潤增速回升。2019上半年歸母淨利潤同比增長18.9%，增速較2018年上升17.6pc，受益於：①19H1末生息資產同比增長13.1%，增速較18A末+7.3pc；②19H1廣義信用成本0.66%,較18A下降10bp，撥備不再拖累業績；③增配政府債券，所得税率較18A下降5.0pc至17.0%。?收入結構調整。2019上半年營收同比僅增長0.1%，增速較2018年下降8.8pc，核心因素是其他非息收入拖累。2019上半年其他非息收入同比下降85.7%，佔營收比重較2018年下降12.0pc至3.4%，歸因於：①交易性金融資產配置減少；②2018上半年其他非息收入基數高。目前其他非息收入調整近尾聲，預計對未來營收的拖累將減少。
資產質量擾動。截至2019年6月末，重慶農商行不良率1.25%，較年初下降4bp，存量資產質量改善。但是前瞻指標邊際上行：逾期率2.25%，較年初+80bp；關注率2.41%，較年初+48bp；不良偏離度79%，較年初+8pc。細拆數據可發現，逾期90天以內貸款佔逾期貸款總額比重較年初大幅上升20pc至56%，説明逾期率上升多數源於近期新的風險暴露，或為個別客户流動性緊張造成的短暫逾期。
回A順利過會。2019年9月6日，重農商行A股發行申請獲得中國證監會的核準，或將成為首家“A+H”股農商行。重慶農商行計劃發行不超過13.57億股，佔發行後總股數11.95%，募集資金將全部用於補充資本金。據披露，本次發行價格為7.36元，靜態測算核心一級資本充足率將因此提升1.47pc至12.45%。
風險提示：業務高度集中重慶地區，地方經濟失速爆發信用風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
