中國中藥(0570.HK)：中藥配方顆粒快速增長，全產業鏈優勢明顯，給予買入評級,目標價 5.52 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：5.52 港元
投資要點
➢ 中藥配方顆粒持續快速增長：
2019 年上半年，中藥配方顆粒收入為人民幣 45.71 億元，同步增長 31.1%， 佔公司收入的 65.9%；中藥配方顆粒期內溢利為人民幣 7.87 億元，同比增 長 23.1%，佔公司利潤比例為 82.5%。天江是國內最早研發製造中藥配方顆 粒的公司，有二十七年的技術積累，中藥配方顆粒是有較高技術壁壘的行業， 公司在競爭中優勢明顯，參與國家標準的制定，提交 180 個，90 個通過審 核，；公司的品種豐富，有 700 多個單味中藥配方顆粒品種，品種齊全方便 中藥臨牀使用；已有中藥提取基地 9 家，配方顆粒製劑基地 6 家，擁有 5 個 共享提取車間，中國中藥不斷進行終端覆蓋，通過投放智能配藥機，形成有 效的保護壁壘，維持並增加市場份額。公司已經投放了 5123 台智能配藥機， 配藥機貢獻收入佔比 52.9%，在渠道方面也形成了較高的壁壘。
➢ 中藥全產業鏈全面發展，優勢明顯：
在發展中藥配方顆粒的的同時，中藥飲片發展迅速，2018 年銷售額為 12.75 億元，2019 上半年為 8.17 億元，中藥飲片代煎業務在 2019 上半年創造了 1.78 億人民幣的營收，同比上升了 15.2%，目前中國中藥已有 6 家飲片代煎 中心投入運營。產地綜合業務充分發揮了中藥全產業鏈的優勢，有利於提升 產品質量及銷售增長。中成藥收入 2018 年同比增長 16.4%，2019 年中期相 比去年同期增長 30%，主要來源於 OTC 渠道的增加，銷售模式的調整以及顯 著的學術推廣效應。
➢ 再次覆蓋給予買入評級,目標價 5.52 港元：
公司中藥配方顆粒快速增長，今年及明年上半年的產地綜合業務投入 19 億 元，之後沒有大的資本投入，ROE 將逐步提升，目前估值低於行業，增長 遠遠高於行業的增長。我們預計 2019-2021 年 EPS 分別為 0.34/0.42/0.55 元，給予目標價 5.52 港元，對應 2020 年 12 倍 PE，給予買入評級。
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