《业绩前瞻》券商料建行(00939.HK)中期纯利按年增逾4%不良率属关键
市场预期建设银行(00939.HK)将於下周三(28日)公布今年中期业绩。受政策指要内银以低息来支持小微企业贷款，本网综合6间券商预测，料建行今年上半年纯利料介乎1,530.54亿元至1,542亿人民币(下同)，较2018年中期1,470.27亿元，按年增长4.1%至4.9%；中位数1,533.43亿元，按年增4.3%。资产质素续仍为投资者最关心领域，留意其不良率走势。
综合3间券商预测，建行今年上半年利息净收入料介乎2,491.8亿元至2,576.86亿元，较2018年同期2,394.86亿元，按年增4%至7.6%。
【净息差收窄 关注四要点】
摩根大通估计建行上半年纯利可按年升4%至1,533.37亿人民币，估计利息净收入增4%至2,491.8亿人民币，料净息差按年收窄10个基点至2.24%，估计不良贷款比率1.47%，按年持平(按半年升1个基点)，拨备覆盖率升至222%，估计成本收入比率23.5%，并料一级资本充足率14.07%。
该行表示，市场於建行业期中将聚焦四大因素，第一是资产质素，经过首季拨备覆盖率持平，料第二季将按季升6个百分点，指不良贷款比率仍是市场关键；第二是净息差，建行自2018年第四季净息差按季收窄14个基点、於今年首季扩阔9个基点，投资者将关注其今年第二季净息差趋势，而该行料录2.2%，按季收窄9个基点(按年收窄13个基点)；第三是普惠金融业务；第四是「债转股」(Debt-Equity Swaps)。
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本网综合6间券商预测，料建行今年上半年纯利料介乎1,530.54亿元至1,542亿元，较2018年中期1,470.27亿元，按年增长4.1%至4.9%；中位数1,533.43亿元，按年增4.3%。
券商│今年上半年纯利预测(人民币)│按年变幅
瑞银│1,542亿元│+4.9%
招银国际│1,536亿元│+4.5%
花旗│1,533.49亿元│+4.3%
摩根大通│1,533.37亿元│+4.3%
野村│1,532亿元│+4.2%
美银美林│1,530.54亿元│+4.1%
按建行2018年中期纯利1,470.27亿人民币计算
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综合3间券商预测，建行今年上半年利息净收入料介乎2,491.8亿元至2,576.86亿元，较2018年同期2,394.86亿元，按年增4%至7.6%。
券商│今年上半年利息净收入预测(人民币)│按年变幅
瑞银│2,576.86亿元│+7.6%
美银美林│2,525.84亿元│+5.5%
摩根大通│2,491.8亿元│+4%
按建行对上年度利息净收入2,394.86亿人民币计算
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